Euro 2016 – Germany vs Italy – Bet Tips

Germany vs Italy – Prediction

GERMANY-VS-ITALY

Germany vs Italy (Pic Cou: Socrrex.com)

Italy to Win – (1-0) – Both Germany and Italy have been rock solid at the back with Germans yet conceded a goal and the Italians just conceding one. Germans do look the more creative unit upfront and they’ve gotten better with each passing game. The Italians under Antonio Conte however are a dangerous unit and seem to perform at their best against “better” opponents. This doesn’t look like a goal fest with the team who are capable of converting the limited chances they create being the likely winner.

Fixture Overview

Match 47

Germany vs Italy

Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, Bordeaux

9 P.M CET, 02-07-2016

Betting Tips – Germany vs Italy

  • Italy to Win – 4.05 (Marathon Bet)

Are Germans the favorites? Yes! Are Italy capable of creating an upset? Yes! The odds on offer for a German win is good enough (2.35 – Stanjames.com). Our decision to back Italy is because they’ve excelled against the stronger opponents i.e Belgium & Spain.

  • Both teams to Score – No – 1.73 (Marathon Bet)

It will a tight game with the first team to score probably ending up as the winner. I wouldn’t be surprised even if this one goes to Penalties.

  • Italy to keep a Clean Sheet – 3.00 (Sky Bet)

I’m just backing my bet here, we backed Portugal and Wales and they backed up our predictions. It will be another night of upset in France.

Route to the Quarter’s

  • Germany qualified for the round of 16’s are the winners of Group C. After winning their opening game against Ukraine 2-0 they suffered a minor setback against Poland who held them to 0-0 draw. Germany recovered well though and won their group via goal difference after beating Northern Ireland 1-0 in their final group game.
  • In the round of 16’s the Germans delivered their most complete performance of the tournament yet beating Slovakia 3-0 and earned themselves a place in the quarters.
  • Italy qualified for the round of 16’s as the winners of Group E. After winning their first two group games against Belgium and Sweden 2-0 & 1-0 respectively they were handed a major shock in the last group game when they were beaten 1-0 by the Republic of Ireland. Despite the defeat the Italians still made it through as the group champions.
  • In the round of 16’s they went onto face Spain in what was a repeat of 2012 Euro Final. The Italians outclassed the Spaniards 2-0 and thereby booked themselves a place in the quarters.

Germany

mario-gomez

Mario Gomez has fought off Gotze to earn way into the starting 11 and if he is to score one more goal then he will overtake Jurgen Klinsmann as Germans all time top scorer in the Euros (Pic Cou: goal.com)

The 6 time finalists and three time European Championship winners came into this tournament on the back of their worst run of form in recent memory. Germany had suffered defeats against Poland and Ireland during the qualifying stages and seemed to carry over their poor run when they lost to England and Slovakia in friendlies leading up to the tournament.

The World Champions however have turned it up when needed and have been the best performing team of the tournament so far. Ukraine provided them with a stern test in their opening game of the Euro’s but managed to keep a clean sheet mainly thanks to the efforts of Manuel Neuer & Jerome Boateng with the latter clearing the ball off the line once.

Against Poland and Northern Ireland they had plenty of the ball but failed to convert the chances created. They had 79% possession & 28 attempts on goal against Northern Ireland but could only score one. Against Slovakia though Germans looked at their absolute best with 22yr old Julian Draxler being the pick of the bunch scoring one and assisting another.

His runs provided the space to Muller & Ozil to work their magic with Mario Gomez asserting himself as the first choice striker over Gotze. Germany have kept a clean sheet in all their four games till now with their defense constantly improving as each game goes by.

The Germans have failed to beat the Italians in any of their 8 previous meeting in major competitions losing 4 & drawing 4. In fact the last time the Germans have lost a game in a major tournament was against the Italians in the 2012 Euro Semi-final.

Jerome Boateng, Sami Khedira & Julian Draxler have recovered from their respective injuries and should start against Italy. Joachim Low has no other injury worries and will have a full quota of 23 players to choose from.

Overall Bet Tips

  • Top Scorer: –
  1. Mario Gomez – 1.40 (Bet 365)
  2. Thomas Muller – 10.00 (Coral)
  3. Julian Draxler – 13.00 (Betvictor)
  4. Bastian Schweinsteiger – 19.00 (Net Bet)
  5. Mario Gotze – 21.00 (Coral)

While there has been no stand out goal scorer among the Germans, Mario Gomez comes into this game on the back of 2 consecutive goal scoring games. My pre-tournament pick Thomas Muller has suffered yet another disappointing European Championship and the World Cup Golden Boot winner is open his account. Not only Muller but the likes of Gotze & Ozil are also yet to open their account even though the latter has chipped in with assists.

  • Overall Finish/Stage of Elimination
  1. Quarter – 2.40 (188 Bet)
  2. Semi’s – 4.33 (Betvictor)
  3. Runner-up – 10.00 (Bet 365)
  4. Winner – 3.75 (888 Sport)

Germany come into the this game as the joint-favorites (3.75 – WilliamHill) to lift the trophy along with France. While it wouldn’t be surprise if they beat Italy it will be their toughest game of the tournament even if they are reach the Semi’s. We had predicted a quarter-final exit for the Germans at the start of the tournament and we’ll stick with it.

Euro 2016 Quarter Final Predictions

Poland vs Portugal

Wales vs Belgium

France vs Iceland

Italy

Giorgio-Chiellini-Andrea-Barzagli-Leonardo-Bonucci

The Juventus defensive trio of Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli & Leonardo Bonucci have been brilliant for the Italians so far. Can they continue their good run of form against Germany? (Pic Cou: Zoom4India.com)

Many had called them the worst Italian squad to ever feature in a major tournament. Not many could argue against the critics considering that the Italians still depended on a 38 yr old Gianluigi Buffon to guard their goal. Not only Buffon but several first team players are 30+ with serious question being asked as to what will happen when the current crop of players retire.

Either ways Italy came into this tournament having gone through the qualifying stages undefeated. Despite not being touted as the favorites to win their group they did do so even outclassing a much star studded Belgium in the process. Italian manager Antonio Conte who had been brought after the 2014 World Cup group exit has worked his best with what he has been provided.

Against the defending champions Spain in the round of 16’s Italians produced a passionate & fierce performance to beat them 2-0. The Juventus trio of Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli & Leonardo Bonucci have brilliant till now. The latter made 6 clearances & four interceptions against Spain more than any other Italian player.

Grazino Pelle has lead their charge upfront and has two goals against his name till now both which has come in the 2nd half injury time. Italians have kept three clean sheets in four games till now and holds the record for the most number of clean sheets in European Championship – 19 in 37 matches.

Italians do have some injury troubles heading into the game with midfielder Daniele Di Rossi picking up a thigh injury in their win against Spain. Antonio Candreva still remains injured with Thiago Motta also available serving a suspension.

Overall Bet Tips

  • Top Scorer
  1. Graziano Pelle – 1.40 (Bet 365)
  2. Eder – 6.50 (Bet 365)
  3. Emanuele Giaccherini – 10.00 (Net Bet)
  4. Giorgio Chiellini – 29.00 (10 Bet)

The Southampton striker Graziano Pelle leads the race to top the Italian goal scoring charts in this tournament. Both of his goals as mentioned earlier have come in the 91st & 92nd minutes against Belgium & Spain. While banking on Eder or Giaccherini won’t be a bad bet we’ll stick with Pelle for now.

  • Overall Finish/Stage of Elimination
  1. Quarter – 1.57 (Bet 365)
  2. Semi’s – 6.00 (Bet 365)
  3. Runner-up – 11.00 (Betfair)
  4. Winner – 7.50 (Betfair)

We had backed Italy to beat the Spaniards in the round of 16’s and that’s exactly what they did. They’ve avenged their 2012 Final defeat and now face a daunting task in beating the current World Champions. Even though we had expected Italy to loose to Germany in our earlier predictions we are reverting our stance and back the Italians to reach the finals.

Past Meeting

The last time these two teams met was in a friendly in Munich leading up to the Euro’s. The Germans ran out comfortable winners on the day thrashing the Azzurri’s 4-1 with goals from Kroos, Gotze, Jonas Hector and Ozil. Roma striker Stephen El Shaarawy scored the solo goal for Italy.

Final Verdict

The Germans and the Italians have been two of the stand out teams so far. A match which was worthy of the semi-final or final is to be contested in quarters. While an exit for the Germans at this stage will be considered a under achievement, the Italians have pretty much nothing much to loose and should get the better of the Germany. It will be weaker opponent that’ll end Italy’s Euro 2016.