Sports Betting Strategies

types-of-bets-in-football-betting

Single, Doubles, Trebles, Accumulator, halftime score, correct score, First Goal Scorer, Last Goal Scorer, Draw no Bet, Scorecast

Most Common Types of Bets in Football

Single or Straight Bets

Single bets are the simplest form of betting out there were you need to simply place a bet on only one of the outcomes for a match.

For example, let’s consider a Liverpool vs Basel game –

Let’s say that you’re betting 10₤ on a Liverpool to win the game at the odds of 1.60. If Liverpool does win the game you will get 16₤ in return and if the game were to end in a draw or if Basel were to win then you lose your bet.

Another example for a Single bet – Let’s take the same game as an example, you are betting 100₤ on Liverpool to score at least two goals in the game at the odds of 1.7 and if Liverpool does manage to score two then you’ll get 170₤ in return.

It’s better to place single bets in matches were the are odds on offer are closer to even. The payout you get from such bets is low if you’re betting on the favourites. Betting on the underdogs can turn in a big reward but then the chances of winning the bet are minimal.

Double Bets

With double bets, you can place a bet on two possible outcomes on two different selections and for you to win the bet you need get both those selections correct. You still lose the bet even if you get one of the selections wrong.

Double bets offer you better returns than single bets but the risk associated with these bets are also greater.

Example:-

Manchester United vs Newcastle

Chelsea vs Manchester City

Let us say you are betting 10₤ on a double bet consisting of two selections (1. Manchester United to win, 2. Chelsea to Win) at the odds of 1.60 and 1.75 respectively. You’ll get 10 x 1.60 x 1.75 = 28₤ in return if both you’re selections come true and you’ll lose and get nothing in return if one or both you’re selections go wrong.

Pep Guardiola Strategy

Treble Bets

One bet in 3 different events

Treble Bets are similar to double bets where you need to bet on the three possible outcomes and the only way to win the bet is to correctly predict all three selections.

Example:-

Everton vs Hull City

Sevilla vs Espanyol

PSG vs Monaco

If you are betting 20₤ on Everton, Sevilla and PSG to win at odds of 1.6, 1.8 and 1.4 respectively you’ll get 20 x 1.6 x 1.8 x 1.4 = 80.64₤ in return. Even if you get one of your selections wrong then you lose the bets.

A greater risk than double bets but so will the be winnings.

Accumulator Bets, also known as Parlays

Similar to the above-mentioned bets in accumulator bets you can place a single bet on the outcomes of 4 or more events. Based on the number of selections involved they can be classified as Four-Fold, Five-Fold, Six-Fold, Seven-Fold, Eight-Fold, Nine-Fold and Ten-Fold accumulator bets.

As the number of selections involved increases greater will be the risk and greater will be the rewards but remember you can lose everything if you get even one of your selections wrong ( In a Ten-Fold accumulator bet you need to get all ten selections correctly to win a bet).

*In the USA accumulator bets are better known as Parlays which is a most common betting term in American Football.

Example:-

Let us consider a Five-Fold accumulator consisting of the following matches,

Liverpool vs Everton

Newcastle vs Sunderland

Manchester United vs Manchester City

Chelsea vs Fulham

Arsenal vs Tottenham

If you are betting 25₤ Liverpool, Sunderland, Manchester City, Fulham and Tottenham to win their respective matches at the odds of 1.5, 1.8, 1.75, 1.9 and 2.2 respectively then you will win 25 x 1.5 x 1.75 x 1.8 x 1.9 x 2.2 = 493.76₤ in return.

And if you were to get even one of your selections wrongly then you will lose the bet. Accumulator bets are hard to get but carry the advantage of a low investment for a high payout.

Correct Score Bets

As the name suggests all you need to do is correctly predict the final scoreline of a match. These chances of winning these kinda bets are really low due to the wide of possible outcomes for a game.

But these bets can return a pretty handy winning if you do manage to get it right.

Example:-

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

If you are betting 100₤ on a 2-1 win for Real Madrid at the odds of 1.65 you will the bet only if Real win the game 2-1. If Real 3-1, 3-0 or by any other scoreline other than 2-1 then you lose the bet.

What is a Correct Score Bet?

Correct Score Betting Strategy

The correct score between PSG vs Bastia

A correct score bet is a wager on the final score result from a match, like 2 – 1, 1 – 0 etc. They are very hard to get right but the payout begins with odds of 6 to 1, meaning a £10 bet will payout £60 for the most obvious correct scores like 1 – 0 and 2 – 1. Other scores like 3 – 0 and 4 – 1 could payout 10 times or more the initial stake.

Correct Score betting tends to be more popular with people who do not place bets online but in the office, which is a funny fact. Online most bets go for the straight winner or Over/Under bets but rarely do we hear tipsters giving out correct score bets in their picks. The reason is probably because they rarely turn out right and performing an analysis to determine the score of the match is very limited.

You can analyze score average between the teams playing, current scorers stats, historical performances and the average overall league scores, coming close to the final result but at the end guessing the score of a match is like playing roulette; you can´t control 80% of the result.

Nonetheless, correct score betting is a little underrated if you ask us and pro bettors should play them more often with their knowledge on money management. If they can properly manage accumulator betting systems they can handle correct scores.

The Most Common Correct Scores

The most common correct scores in European leagues are 2 – 0 and 2 – 1, although for the Premier League this has changed in recent years. 0 – 0 is another very typical correct score although sportsbooks sometimes do not give it as an option in this category, instead, this is an independent bet called “Draw no bet”.

Correct Score Strategy

Correct Score betting Ronaldo

Bet the correct score on national teams

Just like accumulators the correct score bet can be and should be applied with strategy. First-off understand that with odds of 6 to 1 you can lose 5 of 6 bets and come out a winner.

As suggested, these type of bets are better done with national teams than with individual clubs.

Try to take teams that are paired-up very similar in skill so you know that the final goal average is between 0 – 0 and 2 – 2 (everything in between). You can expect Portugal to win 6 – 0 against Bosnia but that result would be extremely rare between Portugal vs Spain. So be smart on your selections.

Example: We take 6 correct score bets all with odds of 6 to 1 and a stake of £10:

Bet #1 Stake: £10 Result: Loss | Accumulated loss: – £10

Bet #2 Stake: £10 Result: Loss | Accumulated Loss: – £20

Bet #3 Stake: £10 Result: Loss | Accumulated Loss: – £30

Bet #4 Stake: £10 Result: Loss | Accumulated Loss: – £40

Bet #5 Stake: £10 Result: Loss | Accumulated Loss: – £50

Bet #6 Stake: £10 Result: Win | Final Balance: £10

*The risk in correct score betting is offset with the high payout. The higher the odds you select the more bets you can have the liberty to fail on.

One professional bettor that we follow, Inplay Ganador, once applied a correct score betting strategy of 4 selections with a stake of £20 pounds on each. The odds were sow wild that with one single selection coming out correct the winnings would´ve been of £700 pounds.

So in the end it comes to a comparison of selecting the best odds with a probable result, and when selecting multiple correct scores always keep your stake the same.

For a very complete betting strategy using correct score betting refer to our Football Roulette Betting System, it offers a detailed explanation of how to apply a classic system to this kind of bet.

Note: In our experience, correct score betting tends to work out more with national team games, especially during playoffs for the Euro Cup, World Cup Playoffs, and tournaments like the World Cup itself. For clubs, it is better applied on international championships like the Europa Cup and Champions League.

Maybe the reason for correct score betting working more on short direct elimination tournaments far better than the regular season championships is that teams play on a more conservative manner. Simple scores like 2 – 0 or 2 – 1 are more favoured. To conduct such research it is best to consult websites like Squawka [1], using the Comparison Matrix punters can face two rival teams and determine their latest goal percentage.

 

Jose Mourinho Tactics Chelsea

Half Time/Full-Time Bets (HT/FT)

As the name suggests you are betting on the outcome of the game during both Half-Time and Full-Time. These kind of bets are particularly useful when you are betting on a game where one team is an overwhelming favourite.

There are 9 possible outcomes in this type of bet so the odds are not in your favour but if you win the rewards are mostly usually really fruitful.

Example:-

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: – Draw – Bayern Munich

You’ll win the bet if the game is a draw at Half-Time and Bayern Munich goes on to win the game at Full-Time.

First Goal Scorer (FGS)

Doesn’t even need to be explained, does it? Correctly predict the first scorer of the game and you win the bet and if you think the game is going to end 0-0 then there is an option to bet on “no goalscorer”. Now, what happens if the first goal is an own goal?

Most sportsbooks usually ignore the own goal and consider the next goal scored as the first goal but if the own goal is the only one of the game then the option of “no goals scorer” wins.

One more thing, if the player starts on the bench and comes on after the first goal has been scored then most sportsbooks return your money.

Example:-

You are betting 10₤ on Harry Kane to score first for Tottenham against Liverpool at the odds of 1.4 then you’ll get 14₤ in return if Kane scores first, simple right?

Last Goal Scorer Bets (LGS)

Same as First Goal Scorer Bets – Correctly predict the last one to score in a game and you win the bet.

Half Time Result

As the name suggests you will win the bet if you can correctly predict the half time scoreline of a game. There are three possible outcomes similar to Full-Time Result bets.

Example:-

Derby County vs Burnley

If you are betting 10₤ on Derby to be heading into the break with the lead and if it comes true you’ll win the bet.

Draw No Bet

It similar to a Full Time Bet with the only difference being that there is no option for a draw. So you’ll have to choose between a win or a loss and if the game were to end in a draw you’ll get your money back. Pretty safe right?

Example:-

Monaco vs Porto

If you are betting 10₤ on Monaco to win the game at the odds of 1.6 then you’ll win the bet Monaco do manage to win the game.

If the game were to end in a draw then you’ll get your money refunded and if the game were to end in a Porto win you’ll lose your bet.

Scorecast

This is a combination of FGS and Correct Score Bet. This is one of the hardest bets out there are hence are really popular among the bookies. You need to correctly predict the scoreline of the game and also predict correctly the scorer of the first goal to win the bet.

Example:-

Swansea City vs Stoke City

Suppose you are predicting a 2-1 win for Swansea with the first scorer of the game being Peter Crouch, then you’ll win the bet only if both these predictions come true and if you get one or both of them wrong you’ll lose the bet.

Sports Betting Strategies

USA Women's Team World Cup Winners, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe

Home Team Strategy

We always wonder how the home team advantage plays out, don’t we?  Somehow, no matter how strong the away team is, the game is always a foregone conclusion on the road. Is it a mental game that affects the travelling players or does it simply come down to the comfort levels of the home team backed by the hostile home support?

All of these definitely play a significant role in creating the so-called “home advantage” and in sports betting, you need all the luck you can get. If the home team is an underdog, it is not the worst option to put your money on them because it is factually known that home teams win more than teams on the road unless there is a real mismatch or they have an absolutely dismal showing.

Here are the main reasons for home advantage and why using the home team strategy for betting is a good and common option.

  • Crowd effect: The biggest factor that influences a game. Sports players are humans and are affected by what the crowd says subconsciously, if not consciously.
  • Travel hangover: The away team has to travel so there is a slight fatigue factor that could affect the team on the road. The home team is fresh and ready to go.
  • Referee supportThe home team tends to get the 50-50 calls from referees due to the bias at times. Refs do not want to get on the wrong side of the home fans and be showered with constant jeers.

Hedging

Hedging is another common strategy adopted by a lot of sports bettors. It is a method used to minimize risk/guarantee profits when betting on sports. It is very similar to making a balanced book like betting sites try to do.

The strategy is challenging to master but easy to understand. It involves placing a new bet on a different result than your original bet.

For example, Manchester United are playing Liverpool in the FA Cup final and your original bet was a Liverpool win. You can hedge this by betting on Manchester United later if Liverpool goes up in the match to potentially hedge your original bet and square off your position in some manner.

Hedging can be used in the following scenarios:

  • Profit-securingWhen there is an opportunity to guarantee a profit when betting on a result.
  • Minimize losses: Mitigate your losses and reduce risks after placing a bet.
  • Accidental betWe tend to make mistakes so hedging is a great way to recover and control the damage caused.

Football Tactics Formation Board

Single Bet Strategy

As the name suggests, this is the strategy where you choose to make a single bet on an individual match and do not end up putting multiple bets in. Treating each outcome separately could be beneficial in the long run.

A single bet is also known as a straight bet.

You should bet on what you know and having some knowledge can prove essential in sports betting. Bet on what you are most confident about and with a single bet, even if you do lose, the losses are significantly lower as compared to multiple bets. Having too many eggs in your basket may be a very bad idea and a single betting strategy can work wonders. Betting on one sport gives you time to research and evaluate the teams and players going into the game to try and make some money.

Line Shopping

Line-shopping is all about taking advantage of pricing discrepancies between the same match/game on different betting sites.

Finding the best odds possible is guaranteed to have a significant (positive) effect on your sports betting returns. It is the closest thing to a 100% win strategy in sports betting. You can be guaranteed bigger profits and long-term success.

Proportional Betting

Proportional betting systems require betting a portion of your total stake and then increasing your bets by that same percentage after each win.

For example, if you had a $100 total stake and bet 10%, your first bet would be $10. If you win, you would add your earnings and put in 10% of your new total stake for the next bet. For instance, if you won $20 you would add this to the $100. You then calculate 10% of $120, which is $12 and so on.

This strategy/system has been one of the most successful methods in betting to lose less and win more.

Fixed Amount Betting

This is another system that has proven to be a big hit. Fixed amount betting involves betting a fixed amount on each bet and works on the basic principle of probability.

This method allows for minimizing losses and not going all-in to risk it all.

Shark All In Betting

Bet It All

Another common strategy that bettors use but we highly recommend against it.

The risk involved is very high, however, if you have the appetite for it then this may be for you because the returns are potentially the highest in this case since the amount being bet is also much higher.

Martingale System

The Martingale system is another high-risk strategy of betting that is commonly used unknowingly by a lot of gamblers.

It is a system where after every loss, the subsequent bet is doubled to try and recover the previous loss with a profit equal to the original bet. It is popular because the odds are in favour of those who have deep pockets but it can also lead to breaking bettors completely by forcing them into losing all their money so be careful in following this method.

This strategy is mostly seen in roulette and blackjack but not so much in sports betting.

Fibonacci Sequence

This comes from economics where bets are placed basis the methodology of the Fibonacci numbers which follow a sequence of – 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 – and so on.

As per this system, the strategy that would be followed would be depending on the chosen starting point of the sequence (that is, in the case of the bet), each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two.

Sports betting does not really allow for such types of bets as it is not a strategy that can hold true. There is a lot less of luck involved in matches than at a casino table.

BETTING SYSTEM THAT WORKS AND MAKES MONEY

Determining sure-bets is not an easy task. It involves several complex probability software and tons of data. There is some common sense in the formula, anyone can predict Chelsea having a 90% rate of winning against Sunderland at home, but we backup these odds with concrete data like historical matches, scores, latest performance, wins at home vs wins away, individual player performance, coach performance and we even look into weather conditions and the referee. A successful betting strategy is consistent in its methodology.

All of these variables have a specific weight and all in all, will give us a percentage of a certain team winning or not a match. We select a small few that are beyond 90% chances of winning and include those on our betting portfolio for a round of matches. But for our next example, we will use more common expectations that vary between 50% and 80% chances of occurring.

STATISTICS FOOTBALL AND STRATEGY BETTING

 

We selected 6 matches that occur on a given weekend and our goal is to win 4 out of the 6 in average throughout an entire season.

PICK 6 SURE WINNERS TO WIN 4 EVERY TIME

Fixture Sure Bet Selected Bookie Odds Stake Liability Chances of Winning
Premier Sunderland vs  Chelsea Lay Home 2.22 6.83 £ 8.33 £ 61.1%
La Liga Levante vs R. Madrid Lay Over 2.5 1.88 9.47 £ 8.33 £ 63.2%
Serie A Juventus vs Milan Lay Draw 4.10 2.69 £ 8.34 £ 77.0%
Champions Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Don´t Bet 1.93 8.33 £ 8.33 £ 56.4%
Euro Cup Germany vs Lithuania Win Home 2.12 8.33 £ 8.33 £ 52.6%
Bundesliga Bayern vs Freiburg Win Home 1.58 8.33 £ 8.33 £ 71.0%
50.0 £ 6.3%

From these 6 picks 4 won and made a profit of 19.9% with a 50 £ purse distributed on all.

NOW WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF WINNING ALL 6 BETS?

 

Here is the formula: 61.1% * 63.2% * 77.0% * 56.4% * 52.6% * 71.0% = 6.3%

 

What does 6.3% mean? This is the chance of winning with all 6 bets. Kind of small, but we are not betting on that to happen, we are after 4 out of 6.

 

Now what are the probabilities that all 6 bets will end up losers?

38.9% * 36.8% * 23.0% * 43.6% * 47.4% * 29.0% = 0.1973%

 

The numbers for this formula come from the opposites of the past one. Losing all 6 bets is even rarer than winning them all, that´s good news.

 

Ok, so we´ve got:

 

6.3% TO WIN ALL OF OUR BETS AND FEEL LIKE KING MIDAS.

0.1973% CHANCES OF COMING HOME WITH OUR TAIL BETWEEN OUR LEGS.

 

But divide 6.3% by 0.1973% and you get 31.93. What the heck is that? That is a probability of 32 to win al 6 bets instead of losing them. Luck is on your side, and 40.90 £ in winnings.

 

MOVING FORWARD, ACCUMULATIVE ODDS SAY YOU WILL GET ALL 6 PICKS RIGHT EVERY 16 ROUNDS BUT ONLY LOSE ALL 6 EVERY 507 ROUNDS

 

In the Premier League or any other, you have approximately 80 rounds a year (of course this can increase if you include international championships and friendly matches). What this means is you could only lose your entire portfolio of 50£ in one weekend every 6 years and 3 months. This is what stats say, but don´t feel the system does not work if you got two full loses in the first year, the next ones it should even out and you might also get several straight full winners in the first year. The important thing is to trust the numbers and avoid emotions getting in the way. When you work with probabilities you take a nice look at the final average number, not at the weekly results to determine is the system works or not.

But we are not interested on getting 6 winners all the time, we will drink to the gods when that happens, but we are more interested on 4 winners every single time.

NOW, WHY DO WE LIKE NUMBER 4?

 

The importance of number 4 is based on two very important questions.

 

  1. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF TIMES I COULD BE RIGHT?

  2. WITH HOW MANY WINNERS DO I MAKE A PROFIT?

 

TO ANSWER QUESTION A WE NEED THE FORMULA OF THE SUCCESS RATE BASED ON OUR CHANCES OF WINNING:

 

(61.1% + 63.2% + 77.0% + 56.4% + 52.6% + 71.0%) / 6 = 63.55%

 

This is an average of our chances of winning divided by the number of bets placed and we got an expectancy of winning of 63.55%.

Now multiply that number by the total 6 bets: 63.55% * 6 = 3.81 which we can round to 4.

In other word, this portfolio should breed 4 winners on average every round.

 

NOW TO ANSWER QUESTION B, IS 4 WINNERS ENOUGH TO BRING SOME MONEY TO THE TABLE?

 

If we do an algebraic diagram of all possible winning and losing combinations with 4 winners and 2 losers that includes the payout data from the first table, profits would range between 7.02 £ and 16.71 £.

So yes, this 4 out of 6 system does pay out some profits!

Well, there might not be 4 winners out of 6 picks every single time. Sometimes we might get 5 winners or just 2, maybe even 6 every now and then, but the average throughout the season should be 4 or something like 4.25.

So now that you know a pick of 4 is profitable and realistic, let’s dig deeper on why it is the best choice of all, let the numbers do the talking.

 

PROBABILITY OF EVENTS ON FOOTBALL BETTING

 

When we talk about the probability of events we analyze the probability of each single events and their sum.

On our 6 match portfolio, we have 15 possible combinations that result in 33% probability of winning with 4 out of the 6 matches. Wait, what?? I thought it was 63.55%?

Hold on, this is another statistical method but it will end around the 63% area, just watch this table:

 

Probability Sum of Totals
6 win 6.3% 6.3%
5 win 22.5% 28.8%
4 win 33.0% 61.9%
3 win 25.2% 87.0%
2 win 10.5% 97.5%
1 win 2.3% 99.8%
0 win 0.2% 100.0%

 

So what you are looking is 7 possible outcomes if we count the no-win. The above table is our Roxeta Stone of how to bet.

Option 1: Chances of winning 6 out of 6 bets are 6.3% – Doesn´t happen that often but anything above 5% is OK in our rule book.

Option 2: Chances of winning 5 out of 6 bets are 22.5% – OK, not that off from winning it all and the chances increased almost by 4.

Option 3: Chances of winning 4 out of 6 bets are 33.0% – And this is where we stand, simply because the chances of this happening are higher than all the others. This is a middle ground, all roads lead to 4, bullseye… you get the point.

Option 4: Chances of winning 3 out of 6 bets are 25.2% – Wait, what? How come winning 3 bets out of 6 is harder than winning 4? Yes, it is, because, from this point on we are on the abnormal ground, this is like Sunderland beating Real Madrid with Ronaldo, James, Bayle all playing. This type of things just do not happen every day, but they do every now and then. Especially when the odds are for Real Madrid to win by 3.5 and they only manage to score 3 goals, just one short of a winning bet.

Option 5: Chances of winning 2 out of 6 bets are 10.5% – The odds of something awkward happening on a match like the above example are small, but 2 of these events happening in the same round are slim.

Option 6: Chances of winning 1 out of 6 bets are 2.3% – Expect it every 6 years or so.

Option 7: Chances of winning 0 out of 6 bets are 0.2% – You might not live to see the day. Might as well win the lottery before this happens.

OK, the last part of the math. Probability of events is not focused on the chances of each individual event, but on the sum of all. And the sum we are interested in is option 3. Option 3 has a chance of occurring of 33%, getting 4 bets correct from 6. But that means you also have chances of getting 5 or 6 wins out of 6. So the cumulative sum of chances is actually 6.3% + 22.5% + 33.0% = 61.9%

WE’VE GOT 61.9% OF CHANCES OF GETTING 4 OR 5 OR 6 OUT OF 6 BETS RIGHT. AND THAT IS HOW WE CALCULATE OUR SURE BETS TO CREATE CONSISTENT WINNINGS.

 

NOW, ARE YOU READY TO MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS THIS WEEK?

ROULETTE BETTING STRATEGY

Football betting system

Correct Score” is one of the most common types of bets most sportsbooks offer along with straight bets and the over/under. Very simple to understand but not so easy to get right, define what the score of a match will end and if it ends exactly how you predicted it you win a very juicy payout, miss the score by a goal and you lose.

Example: PSG to win 2 – 1 against Chelsea during the Champions League 2014 – 2015, you only win if that score happens. Given its degree of difficulty it pays many times more than simply betting for the winner, the lowest of correct score bets pay around 2.5 times more or 6/1. Correct Score betting is in the core of the Roulette Betting Strategy, in this article we will explain how the strategy works and analyze its effectiveness.

The Football Roulette Correct Score betting system is based on the idea of continuously betting on the same score line with increasing stakes till the desired score line is reached. This technique is as old as Rome itself and it has been used in multiple gambling and non-gambling situations like poker, casino slot machines, Black Jack, Forex, stock trading, and off course Roulette.

This system of raising your next bet to recompense for the previous loss is normally known as the Martin Gale system [1].

IS THE ROULETTE BETTING STRATEGY EFFECTIVE?

Unlike in a casino Roulette game were they house predetermines the minimum and maximum stake, in Football there is no such trouble.  The only problem is your bankroll management. This system is based on the presumption that the gambler can increase his stake indefinitely.

This is hardly the reality as sportsbooks do limit the amount that can be staked and most importantly limit the amount a bettor can lose, if the sportsbook finds an unusual behavior with a string of losses they might freeze your account in the name of protecting you from catastrophe. Besides, it is in the terms and conditions of many sportsbooks that betting systems are not allowed, and any account suspected of conducting one could be frozen.

There are several workarounds for these issues, the obvious ones are to open several different sportsbooks accounts and perform the escalating of bets using all of them, alternating between them. The only obstacle remaining is the limited bankroll, so the bettor must consider a limit of rounds for this strategy if their bankroll is small or be prepare to have a large balance.

One thing is for certain and like most systems this technique requires a lot of discipline from the side of the bettor. Another more effective betting system that we like to use and is very popular with tipsters and punters right now is the  £25 to  £1 Grand a Week Challenge which is based on an Accumulator strategy.

IS FOOTBALL ROULETTE CORRECT SCORE TECHNIQUE PROFITABLE – CASE STUDY

Average scores in the Premier League and Europe

The odds offered in a correct score bet are substantially higher than normal win or lose bets. As stated, they begin at 6/1 odds which is 6 times your initial stake, but it is suggested to take 7/1 odds, higher would be better but the score might fall in the realm of unlikely.

Facts About Correct Score Bets:

  • The most common full time scores in football are 1-1 and 2-1
  • The most common half time scores are 1-0 and 0-0.

This system is better used as a long term program so do not expect positive results to happen during the first week or month. When we talk about long term we mean a full season, like Premier League season.

The goal is to win a prefixed score line and not stop betting on it until you win the bet. So for example if you are betting for Manchester United to win 2 – 1 against any rival you will bet on it until the prediction occurs and you win the bet. In case you lose the first round or second and so on, you continue doubling the stake amount to compensate for losses until you win. At the end the payout will be a couple units higher than all accumulated losses.

MOST COMMON CORRECT SCORE LINE IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE

This betting strategy is a little bit different to others in the sense that you select a consistent trail of bets from a same team rather singular games based on previous analysis.

The key is that you do not need to perform game day analysis since the bet will always remain the same. The only research you conduct as a punter should be to determine the most common game score for the team you have selected for the next season.

The most common score in the Premier League for seasons 2009/2010 onwards (2015 presently) is 2 – 1 as stated by sportingintelligence.com [2]. Before that the most common score line was 1-0 but Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea changed this pattern probably due to the hunger of a strong and fast offense in English football.

2-1 should be the score line to target with Football Roulette if you are using it to bet on the Premier League, but these other scores are also in the 63% most common for EPL: 1-0 (or 0-1), 2-1 (or 1-2), 2-0 (or 0-2), 1-1 and 0-0.

SCORELINE FOR FOOTBALL ROULETTE BETTING STRATEGY

Here are the numbers behind correct score betting, taking into account the most common score in all leagues like Serie A, Bundesliga and La Liga is 1 – 0 (now we know that has changed in the Premier).

12% of the games in those leagues (40 out of 380 games) would have ended 1-0. If you had betted on all of them with the same stake at the end it would all be a great loss. But if you take out all games you assume are unlikely to end 1-0, like Real Madrid vs Osasuna, then the odds improve to maybe give you a small winning margin. Apply the Roulette Betting strategy to those selected few and you may secure some nice profits from that 12%.

Here is another piece of data thanks to falsenumber9blog.wordpress.com [3]:

  • Over 2.5 goals are more likely to occur in the Premier League and Bundesliga, but not on La Liga and Serie A.
  • Serie A has a nice percentage of games ending Under 2.5 goals.
  • Most games in La Liga are won at home.
  • Away games are won more often in Bundesliga.
  • Draws are more common in the Premier League.

Note: This data is based on information prior to 2013. Make sure to re-evaluate the stats on sites like squawka.com [4]. Also make sure to go in deeper and check the data of each individual team you decide to apply the strategy on.

SOME FINAL SUGGESTIONS

Best Twitter Tipster

Some pro bloggers like the Soccer Widow have tested this Roulette Betting strategy on their site and found it to be very shaky. Their exact conclusion was “This strategy will almost certainly leave you pennyless”. That´s referring to the presumption that you won´t have unlimited funds to carry on increasing your stake.

This technique is not very popular but it comes and goes from word of mouth as someone seems to hit a good streak with it from time to time. We have seen it being used in Forex, Poker, slot machines, bingo etc. There is always a pro player that says he is making big money with it. Probably most modify the technique to something they know works for them. And by that we mean everyone has his own unique style of betting and special skills.

Find if this system works for you on those games you are a complete pro on. If you are a wise kid on the Premier League, stick to that. You know Arsenal like the back of your hand? Apply it only to Arsenal.

And remember these final tips of you are in doubtful terrain right now:

  • Always test the strategy on paper first, no real betting. Test it for a whole season, patience is very important with this technique and the key to its success. You can try other stuff out meanwhile like following a pro In Play tipster like Ganador and make money with him before you try this out.
  • Stablish a fixed bankroll for this strategy, after testing it on paper begin with a small account. By the third season you should be a Roulette Betting pro and ready to stake bigger. Smart investors always take their time to develop a game plan until they are masters. That´s how they print money like crazy.
  • Sometimes your pool may not win by the desired score line the whole season so the best thing to do is to review the results mid-way and cut of teams who you think won’t win by that margin all season.
  • Bet on teams only at their home games to increase your chances of winning.
  • Take odds higher than 6/1 (six times your stake).

EXTERNAL LINKS

[1] wikipedia.org, Martingale Betting System, 2015

[2] sportingintelligence.com, Goodbye 1-0 Hello 2-1 in Premier League New Era, 2013

[3] falsenumber9blog.wordpress.com, Comparing Key Stats Across The Top 4 European Leagues, 2013

[4] squawka.com, Football Stats Site, 2015