Before going into the details we think it’s important to let you guys know what this article is and what we are hoping to achieve with it. Football as you know it is a game that is unpredictable to say the least, all it takes is a second to score a goal and any team can beat another on a given day.
Given the unpredictable nature of the game it’s pretty safe to say that betting on football is a tough and risky business. However there is a lot of money to be made but only if you are prepared to learn and understand what you’re betting on before putting your money on the table.
Remember! Even if you don’t get all your bets correctly all it takes is a success rate between 50-55 to turn in a decent amount of profit.
This’ll be the first of a series of articles were we’ll be listing out stats and facts associated with a certain team which will be extremely useful when it comes to placing certain types of bets, in ths case Manchester United.
Betting on Manchester United
This is a betting analysis on the 20 time English Champions and 3 time European Champions – Manchester United and listing out the bet types you should consider placing by taking into account the stats and facts we have provided along with it.
We’ll focusing on data and stats associated with the team from the 2012/13 season onwards taken from the statistical wesbite, Squawka [1].
Manchester United Betting Strategy
- Over 2.5 at home against Big 6
- Under 2.5 against the Big 6 away from home
- Over 2.5 in Northwest Derby
- Over 3.5 in Manchester Derbies
- Value Bet on West Brom to Win or Draw-no-Bet at Old Trafford
- Expect them to score a good amount of set-piece goals
*Following is the data and research that led to determination of this betting tips and strategy for United.
Manchester United Before and Now
There is a before and now difference for Manchester United marked by the time Alex Ferguson left Manchester United. During his reign United was unbeatable, champions of England and top contenders of the Champions League. Once Ferguson left the club fell from a cliff and began to struggle just to keep on the top Premier 4.
Manchester United Alex Ferguson Era Statistics
Sir Alex Ferguson ended his 27 yr old association with Manchester United at the end of the 2012/13 season but only after guiding the Red Devils to their 13th Premier League title and 20th English Championship.
It was a highly successful campaign that saw them losing just 5 games at home and winning 28 of their 38 league games. In that time the best betting tip would be to, Bet to Win! away and home.
Total number of games:- 38 – 28 Wins – 5 Losses – 5 Draws
Home games -19 – 16 Wins – 3 Losses
Away games – 19 – 12 Wins – 2 Losses – 5 Draws
Total goals scored: – 86 Total goals conceded: – 43
Average no.of goals scored per game: – 2.26 Average number of goals conceded per game: – 1.13
Goals scored at home: – 45 Goals conceded at home: – 19
Average no.of goals scored at home: – 2.36 Average goals conceded at home: – 1.00
Away goals scored: – 41 Goals conceded away from home: – 24
Average no.of goals scored away from home : -2.15 Average no.of goals conceded in away games: – 1.26
Goals scored from set pieces: – 26
Average number of set piece goals per goals scored: – 0.31
Total Points: – 89
Points collected from home games: – 48
Points collected from away games: – 41
Manchester United Stats in the Post Ferguson Era
At the end of the 2012/13 campaign, then Everton manager David Moyes was handpicked by Ferguson to succeed him at United. However things didn’t go according to plan and saw Moyes getting sacked with 4 games left in the season and the team languishing 7th in the table.
Ryan Giggs took over as interim manager for the last few games of the season but still ended up finishing outside the Top 4 for the first time in their Premier League history.
Total number of games: – 38 – 19 Wins – 7 Draws – 12 Losses
Home games – 19 – 9 Wins – 3 Draws – 7 Losses
Away games – 19 – 10 Wins – 4 Draws – 5 Losses
Total goals scored: – 64 Total goals conceded: – 43
Average no.of goals scored per game: – 1.68 Average no.of goals conceded per game: – 1.13
Goals scored at home: – 29 Goals conceded at home: – 21
Average no.of goals scored at home: – 1.5 Average goals conceded at home: – 1.10
Away goals scored: – 35 Goals conceded away from home: – 25
Average no.of goals scored away from home : – 1.84 Average no.of goals conceded in away games: – 1.31
Goals scored from set pieces: – 16
Average number of set piece goals per goals scored: – 0.25
Total Points: – 64
Points collected from home games: – 30
Points collected from away games: – 34
Manchester United and the Van Gaal Reign
With the premature exit of David Moyes, United went in search of a new manager someone who could get them back to the top of English football. The search ended in Louis Van Gaal – Former Barcelona and Netherlands national team manager.
The arrival of the Dutch manager also saw the arrival of a host of new players including many big money signings. Louis Van Gaal was quick to make it clear that a top 4 finish was what he was aiming for in his first season, and by the end of the campaign Van Gaal had fulfilled his promise as United finished the season 4th in the table.
Total number of games: – 38 – 20 Wins – 10 Draws – 8 Losses
Home games – 19 – 14 Wins – 2 Draws – 3 Losses
Away games – 19 – 6 Wins – 8 Draws – 5 Losses
Total goals scored: – 62 Total goals conceded: – 37
Average no.of goals scored per game: – 1.63 Average no.of goals conceded per game: – 0.97
Goals scored at home: – 41 Goals conceded at home: – 15
Average no.of goals scored at home: – 2.16 Average goals conceded at home: – 0.79
Away goals scored: – 21 Goals conceded away from home: – 22
Average no.of goals scored away from home : – 1.105 Average no.of goals conceded in away games: – 1.15
Goals scored from set pieces: – 15
Average number of set piece goals per goals scored: – 0.24
Total Points: – 70
Points collected from home games: – 44
Points collected from away games: – 26
Tips to Bet on Manchester United
Red Fortress
Based on the stats from the previous three season it’s pretty clear that United are a stronger team at home than away from home.
On an average United scores at least two goals per game (1.97) at Old Trafford. They also tend to lose fewer number of games at home than away from it.
If you take away the 2013/14 season which was an anomaly to say the least, then they have lost just 6 of their 38 games at Old Trafford and winning 30 of those games giving a win percentage of 78.9%.
Another piece interesting fact associated with United’s form at home is the number of goals they conceded. In the past three season they’ve just conceded 55 goals in 57 games which gives a goals to games ratio of 0.96. Strong defense.
- Betting against United at home against bottom half teams is not a good idea
- Do not take the Over for United or combined against middle-table up contenders. Except against the top 6…
- Matches against the fellow top 6 (City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs) excluding Chelsea always tend to be high scoring affairs with the 12 games against them in the past three season producing 38 goals which give an average of 3.16 goals per game. Over 2.5 against the Top 6 excluding Chelsea.
- Bet the Under when facing strong rivals at home.
- Chelsea, Manchester City, Spurs and surprisingly West Brom are the four teams against whom they’ve had the most trouble at home. Place a Value Bet on West Brom to Win or Draw against United at home, but only when West Brom comes from a good performance and United is not at its best.
How to Bet Manchester United Away Games
Away from home United’s win percentage falls to a respectable 49%. Though they fail to win more than half the matches away from home and lose them more than turning a draw.
In the past three seasons United has scored 97 goals from 57 away games at an average of 1.7 goals per game. In those 57 games they’ve conceded 71 goals giving a goals to game ratio of 1.24.
Away Games Betting Tips
- Away from home Manchester United have trouble against teams from the bottom as well as teams from the top half of the table.
- Their 57 away games have yielded of 168 goals in total (scored and conceded by them), which means an average of 2.94 goals per games, which again points to fact that betting Over 2.5 in Manchester United matches is the way to go.
- United have struggled against Everton at Goodison Park over the last seasons losing all three games and conceding 6 goals in total and scoring none.
- Chelsea and Manchester City have beaten them twice in the last three season while Spurs have held the Red Devils to a draw in their previous three encounters.
- Similar to the games contested at Old Trafford the games against the fellow top 6 teams are high scoring affairs with a goals to game ratio of 2.6 indicating Over 2.5 is a good bet when United visits one of the big 6.
- However it is worth a mention that in Louis Van Gaals first season with the Red Devils only a total of 8 goals were born when United the big 6.
How to Bet Manchester United vs Liverpool (North-West Derby)
Manchester United vs Liverpool is often termed as the biggest game in the English season and rightly so, Manchester United have held this fierce rivalry with their Merseyside rivals for well over half a century now.
United hold the upper hand over their rivals where overall wins are concerned. In the 192 meetings till date between the two, the Reds of Manchester have won 77 times while Liverpool have 64 wins and 51 draws.
The six meetings in the last three seasons between the two have yielded 16 goals giving a goals to games ratio of 2.67. It’s a worth a mention that 2-1 seems to be most frequent scoreline when these two meet. Over 2.5 is definitely the best bet for the Manchester United vs Liverpool Derby.
How to Bet Manchester United vs Manchester City (Manchester Derby)
The Manchester City Derby is another highlight of the English season and almost always produces quality matches.
In the 169 meeting between the two till date, the Red half of Manchester have won 70 times while City have won 49 times and 50 games ended in a draw.
In the past three seasons the two teams have met 6 times in the league and City have come out on top with 4 wins to United’s 2. A total of 25 goals have been scored by either sides on these 6 games giving a goals to games ratio of 4.2. So we can safely say betting Over 3.5 in Manchester Derbies is a winning bet more often than not.
Reference Links
[1] squawka.com, Manchester United Stats and Performance, 2015
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