Germany begun the race to the Euro Cup 2016 as the big favorite after winning the World Cup, and still is. Only now it shares favoritism along France with odds of 3 or 10/3 by all sportsbooks to win the Euro Cup outright. Germany still holds a slight advantage after an almost perfect record during the qualifying phase which came as a breeze for them.
After 10 games Germany only conceded 3 losses, early on to Poland, a surprising loss to Ireland and the last was the friendly against France during the terrorist attacks of November 13 in Paris. Aside from those losses features only one draw and the rest are spectacular wins, including a 0 – 7 against Gibraltar.
Germany has been FIFA #1 team in the world ever since winning the World Cup although Belgium claimed that right after the Euro qualifiers. The point, Germany deserves the Euro Cup by right this time, they deserve it thanks to the super-star squad they have and their almost perfect condition that has maintained consistent from before the World Cup.
Doubts have aroused with recent defeat against France on a friendly that occurred in November 2015, but friendlies are not the same as championship games. In fact, most of the few scars Germany has accumulated during this year period have been losing against USA (friendly), Draw against Australia (friendly), and losing against France (friendly); from then on only Ireland has drawn and won against Germany on qualifier games.
France might be the most popular team right now being hosts, but Germany will reach te final game no matter what. The big difference is consistency, Germany has maintained is status quo all season while France has not.
*Find out what are the best tips when betting on France during the Euro Cup 2016.
You can continue reading the full insights or skip right to the betting tips.
Things to Look Out For
- Germany are now without their all-time captain Philipp Lahm and great striker Miroslav Klose, the last of which is the present goal scorer in World Cup history.
- Germany doesn’t win the Euro Cup since back in 1996.
- Their most recent success was the 2006 edition when they reached the final game but lost.
- In the past Euro Cup 2012 Germany reached the semifinals. They also won 14 of the 15 games they played, no draws.
How does Germany play?
Bastian Schweinsteiger Stats & Style
The heir of Klose on the national squad and a veteran of over 100 international games has recently made a transfer move from Bayern Munich to Manchester United. A shaky move, as many great players like Di Maria failed to adjust to English football when they were great elsewhere.
But Schweinsteiger seems to have adapted fast and is delivering as a great midfielder, during his first game for United against Liverpool he generated the most passes of all games that weekend (72). This marks him as a key creator for the German team. He is no longer super-fast or expecting to convert many goals (scored 67 goals in 500 games with Bayern Munich, scored 26 goals in 100 games with Germany) and did suffer multiple injuries during the 2014 season with Bayern.
Schweinsteiger likes to stay right in the middle of the field and that is where he is more effective generating passes connecting defense with offense. Regarded as one of the best midfielders in the world, Schweinsteiger has strength to shoot from long range with his left as well as a wicked delivery. Nicknamed the “Midfield Motor” and “The Brain” of the team, his skills in game reading allow him to generate incredible goal opportunities.
Schweinsteiger Skills 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imwFrvRvoZA
Schweinsteiger Betting Tips
A key piece in the effectiveness of Germany during the Euro Cup. His 31 years of age will soon begin to diminish his boundless energy against younger rivals, but confined to the midfield that shouldn’t be an issue.
But no real trends in results when he plays or doesn’t. He is not an assist genius neither a goal scorer. He is more key to defense by keeping ball possession on the German side than by generating goal opportunities.
Thomas Muller Stats & Style
Muller gained international recognition after the World Cup of 2016. He didn’t quite make it as the top scorer despite his incredible scoring skills. Most of his mature career has been spent in Bayern Múnich so his style is purely german.
Most people would believe Muller a natural striker, and he is quite effective producing goals as a right wing where he can drift inside or side by side the main striker.
Surprisingly, comparing season’s 2014 vs 2015 Muller has increased his number of assists from 15 to 18 and reduced his goals from 26 to 20. He is making the transition from a goal scorer into a creator.
Thomas Muller Skills 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-LUTKoJvXQ
Muller Betting Tip
When he plays the striker he produces more assists than goals. When playing as a right wing he is the goal scorer.
Bet on Muller to score anytime in the game when he plays right wing on the German team, not when he is the main striker [1].
Marco Reus Stats & Style
Considered one the best players in the world back in 2014, the Borussia German striker has dimmed his game during the 2015 season after an early year injury.
Back in 214 he scored 23 goals and 23 assists, during season 2015 he only managed half of that with 11 goals and 6 assists.
Has Marco Reus softened as a striker?
Time will tell in 2016, he still has time to recover from injury but as of now he seems to be a candidate for a substitute player in the German team rather than a starter.
In 2014 he scored a goal every 76 minutes, it now takes his 132 minutes in average to score a goal.
Marco Reus Skills 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOivnc4ptB8
Marco Reus Betting Tips
Keep an eye on this player’s development during the 2016 season, will he make a comeback or will he suffer the fate of many great players that never really recovered after injury season?
Avoid high Over bets when Marco Reus is a starter, he might just ruin too many goal opportunities. Might go with the German under 2.5 team goals when he is on the field.
*Not very crazy about focusing on Reus to decide any type of bet though, there are far more important players and factors in play [2].
Mats Hummels Stats & Style
Mats Hummels is not a much popular player as Gotze, Kroos or Thomas Muller, but he is a key factor none the less. Plays as central defender for the national team and Borussia Dortmund. An experienced player who is the captain in his club and in charge of closing the goal to rivals.
In the Bundesliga in the 2015 season he has won 25 tackles with a success rate of 61%, 28 interceptions, 46 clearances and two blocks. He also managed to score a goals this season for his club. In the World Cup he converted 2 goals but lost half of his personal duels.
The defensive stats of Germany seem to lack data sometimes, but that has more to do with Germany ball possession stats and ability to keep the ball on the rival side. In other words, defense has it easy in the German squad. Hummel’s is a brilliant player but has played half the games in 2015 that he did on 2014, probably due to injury or some other reason. His ratings place him as Borussia Dortmund´s second best player and key player in winning the Bundesliga for Dortmund some seasons back, but his personal duels won of 50% leave a lot to ponder on [4].
Mats Hummels Skills 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaovmlygQQw
Mats Hummels Betting Tips
Make sure Mats Hummels is a starter on defense for Under 2.5 goals against Germany.
Mario Gotze Stats & Style
Mario Gotze accompanies Thomas Muller in the attack. Young, versatile and strongly talented he plays as an attacking midfielder for Bayern Munich and in the national team. His best position is that of a creator a little bit on the back, just the skill Muller is developing recently. But he can either play as a striker or right/left winger and even a false 9. With Muller as a right wing and Gotze as an attacking midfielder both players assist each other is assist and goals, changing lines with ease.
His greatest skills are speed technique, dribbling and playmaking tactics.
Gotze has been described as one of the best talents Germany has ever had and “The German Messi” for his speed. When he played at Dortmund under Jurgen Klopp, he played different positions in 4-2-3-1 formations.
His other weaknesses include aerial duels and tackling. He is more effective as a striker passing assistant than a goal scorer.
In the national we will see him as both a false 9 and attacking midfielder.
Check-out his diving stats, Gotze likes to hunt goal area penalties and free kicks. He also tends to cut inside and hold on to the ball for just too long.
His speed might be his greater skill, but at a cost from his endurance and stamina. Do not expect Gotze to play with the same intensity the full 90 minutes.
Mario Gotze Skills 2015
Mario Gotze Betting Tips
Gotze is not a brilliant goal scorer, neither for Bayern Munich or the German national team despite playing as a striker. Do not bet on Gotze to score anytime, he does convert in between games, like every 3 games or so and he produced a double against Poland in the qualifiers for the Euro Cup.
Mario is the perfect partner for Muller, whenever they play together aim for Germany to score at any time, Muller to score next goal or Over 1.5 team goals.
Toni Kroos Stats & Style
Another of the world’s top midfielders, Kroos plays a midfielder for Real Madrid and has been praised by his coach to be one of the most versatile and adaptive players in the club.
His major strength is his passing accuracy, amount of goal assists and powerful long shots. After the World Cup of 2014 Manchester United tried to sign him before Real did, Paul Scholes from that team was know to say “he is a top-class midfielder, he is the player United most need to sign.”
Just like Schweinsteiger, Kroos style of play is intelligent, tactical and paced controlled. A proper future heir to the midfield position that will soon be relegated by the captain.
His 2014 season was brighter than 2015, in the 2015 season he only produced 3 assists and 19 goal chances with Real Madrid, but no goals by himself. 678 completed passes with a 93% accuracy, of which 71% were forward do make him the perfect midfielder.
Toni Kroos Skills 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybd1l-Pm9A4
Toni Kroos Betting Tip
Discard Kroos from the anytime scorer bet, that is not his role.
With Kroos and Schweinsteiger on the midfield (don´t think both will play together), Germany seems to have the perfect backbone to keep balance in the team during the whole Euro Cup.
Go for the Under 2.5 scored against Germany, with either two midfielders ball possession should remain 70% of the time on the German side. When was the last time Germany received more than 2 goals against?
If there is any, exotic bet on Over number of passes, with either Schweinsteiger or Kroos go for a high Over passing bet. They break world records in both pass generation and accuracy [3].
Germany Betting Tips
*Just a tip to keep in mind Germany almost never draws a game, it wins more often than not or loses, but draws are not in their recent game sheet on official matches.
Over 0.5 first half goals. This is an overall match result, Germany is very aggressive on the attack and very rarely does it leave a game without a first half goal.
Over 1.5 total goals. The only game during the qualifiers that Germany finished a game with just one total goal scored overall during the match was against Spain, 18 of November, a friendly match. The average total score per game for Germany comes closer to 3 goals per game, so taking the over 1.5 seems a safe bet.
Germany to win against almost every team. Germany rarely losses and there doesn´t seem to be a pattern in the few official games it concedes. Sometimes it loses against top teams or small timers. Most of its losses were during friendlies so we can just assume the manager was trying out a few players or new tactics and taking risks.
No clean Sheet. A bet rarely used but effective in this situation. As stated on German stats, Germany does not draw an official game. During the last Euro Cup of 2012 Germany won all of its matches only losing the semifinal game. In the 2008 edition 3 games were draws from 18 played, and during these recent qualifiers they didn´t draw once, only one draw against Australia during a friendly match.
Thomas Muller to score any time. 12 games in the Bundesliga, 11 goals. 4 games in the Champions League, 4 goals. UEFA Euro Cup qualifiers games played 9, total goals 9… On average per game Muller scores 1 goal no matter the team or championship.
**Special Tip: Lay bet Germany in friendly matches or rivals to Win or Draw when the German side play with alternate players and their rivals present their main squad. Most of the games Germany has lost or drawn have been friendlies, most recently against Australia and USA. This can be a perfect opportunity to hunt extremely valuable odds betting on the long shots when they have the best of chances. Might consider taking it as an Inplay bet though.
An alternate safer bet would be taking the Under team goals and totals on friendlies. Not much goals as scored on this games with super players leaving minutes to new trials.
Reference Links
[1] Bleachreport.com, Comparing Thomas Muller Stats 2014/15, 2015
[2] BleachReport.com, Comparing Marco Reus Stats 2014/2015, 2015
[3] Squawka.com, Toni Kroos Stats, 2015
[4] Sqawka.com, Mats Hummels Stats, 2015
