Determining sure-bets is not an easy task. It involves several complex probability software and tons of data. There is some common sense in the formula, anyone can predict Chelsea having a 90% rate of winning against Sunderland at home, but we backup these odds with concrete data like historical matches, scores, latest performance, wins at home vs wins away, individual player performance, coach performance and we even look into weather conditions and the referee. A successful betting strategy is consistent in its methodology.
All of these variables have a specific weight and all in all will give us a percentage of a certain team winning or not a match. We select a small few that are beyond 90% chances of winning and include those on our betting portfolio for a round of matches. But for our next example we will use more common expectations that vary between 50% and 80% chances of occurring.
Statistics football and strategy betting
We selected 6 matches that occur on a given weekend and our goal is to win 4 out of the 6 in average throughout an entire season.
Pick 6 sure winners to win 4 every time
|Sure Bet||Selected Bookie Odds||Stake||Liability||
Chances of Winning
|Sunderland vs Chelsea||Lay Home||2.22||6.83 £||8.33 £||
|Levante vs R. Madrid||Lay Over 2.5||1.88||9.47 £||8.33 £||
|Juventus vs Milan||Lay Draw||4.10||2.69 £||8.34 £||
|Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid||Don´t Bet||1.93||8.33 £||8.33 £||
|Germany vs Lithuania||Win Home||2.12||8.33 £||8.33 £||
|Bayern vs Freiburg||Win Home||1.58||8.33 £||8.33 £||
From these 6 picks 4 won and made a profit of 19.9% with a 50 £ purse distributed on all.
Now what are the chances of winning all 6 bets?
Here is the formula: 61.1% * 63.2% * 77.0% * 56.4% * 52.6% * 71.0% = 6.3%
What does 6.3% mean? This is the chance of winning with all 6 bets. Kind of small, but we are not betting on that to happen, we are after 4 out of 6.
Now what are the probabilities that all 6 bets will end up losers?
38.9% * 36.8% * 23.0% * 43.6% * 47.4% * 29.0% = 0.1973%
The numbers for this formula come from the opposites of the past one. Losing all 6 bets is even rarer than winning them all, that´s good news.
Ok, so we´ve got:
6.3% to win all of our bets and feel like King Midas.
0.1973% chances of coming home with our tail between our legs.
But divide 6.3% by 0.1973% and you get 31.93. What the heck is that? That is a probability of 32 to win al 6 bets instead of losing them. Luck is on your side, and 40.90 £ in winnings.
Moving forward, accumulative odds say you will get all 6 picks right every 16 rounds but only lose all 6 every 507 rounds
In the Premier League or any other you have approximately 80 rounds a year (of course this can increase if you include international championships and friendly matches). What this means is you could only lose your entire portfolio of 50£ in one weekend every 6 years and 3 months. This is what stats say, but don´t feel the system does not work if you got two full loses in the first year, the next ones it should even out and you might also get several straight full winners in the first year. The important thing is to trust the numbers and avoid emotions getting in the way. When you work with probabilities you take a nice look at the final average number, not at the weekly results to determine is the system works or not.
But we are not interested on getting 6 winners all the time, we will drink to the gods when that happens, but we are more interested on 4 winners every single time.
Now why do we like the number 4?
The importance of number 4 is based on two very important questions.
What is the average number of times I could be right?
With how many winners do I make a profit?
To answer question A we need the formula of the success rate based on our chances of winning:
(61.1% + 63.2% + 77.0% + 56.4% + 52.6% + 71.0%) / 6 = 63.55%
This is an average of our chances of winning divided by the number of bets placed and we got an expectancy of winning of 63.55%.
Now multiply that number by the total 6 bets: 63.55% * 6 = 3.81 which we can round to 4.
In other word, this portfolio should breed 4 winners on average every round.
Now to answer question B, is 4 winners enough to bring some money to the table?
If we do an algebraic diagram of all possible winning and losing combinations with 4 winners and 2 losers that includes the payout data from the first table, profits would range between 7.02 £ and 16.71 £.
So yes, this 4 out of 6 system does pay out some profits!
Well, there might not be 4 winners out of 6 picks every single time. Sometimes we might get 5 winners or just 2, maybe even 6 every now and then, but the average throughout the season should be 4 or something like 4.25.
So now that you know a pick of 4 is profitable and realistic, let’s dig deeper on why it is the best choice of all, let the numbers do the talking.
Probability of events on football betting
When we talk about probability of events we analyze the probability of each single events and their sum.
On our 6 match portfolio we have 15 possible combinations that result in 33% probability of winning with 4 out of the 6 matches. Wait, what?? I thought it was 63.55%?
Hold on, this is another statistical method but it will end around the 63% area, just watch this table:
|Probability||Sum of Totals|
So what you are looking is 7 possible outcomes if we count the no win. The above table is our Roxeta Stone of how to bet.
Option 1: Chances of winning 6 out of 6 bets are 6.3% – Doesn´t happen that often but anything above 5% is OK in our rule book.
Option 2: Chances of winning 5 out of 6 bets are 22.5% – OK, not that off from winning it all and the chances increased almost by 4.
Option 3: Chances of winning 4 out of 6 bets are 33.0% – And this is where we stand, simply because the chances of this happening are higher than all the others. This is middle ground, all roads lead to 4, bull’s eye… you get the point.
Option 4: Chances of winning 3 out of 6 bets are 25.2% – Wait, whatttt? How come winning 3 bets out of 6 is harder than winning 4? Yes it is, because from this point on we are on abnormal ground, this is like Sunderland beating Real Madrid with Ronaldo, James, Bayle all playing. This type of things just don´t happen every day, but they do every now and then. Especially when the odds are for Real Madrid to win by 3.5 and they only manage to score 3 goals, just one short of a winning bet.
Option 5: Chances of winning 2 out of 6 bets are 10.5% – The odds of something awkward happening on a match like the above example are small, but 2 of these events happening in the same round are slim.
Option 6: Chances of winning 1 out of 6 bets are 2.3% – Expect it every 6 years or so.
Option 7: Chances of winning 0 out of 6 bets are 0.2% – You might not live to see the day. Might as well win the lottery before this happens.
OK, last part of the math. Probability of events is not focused on the chances of each individual event, but on the sum of all. And the sum we are interested in is option 3. Option 3 has a chance of occurring of 33%, getting 4 bets correct from 6. But that means you also have chances of getting 5 or 6 wins out of 6. So the cumulative sum of chances is actually 6.3% + 22.5% + 33.0% = 61.9%
We´ve got 61.9% of chances of getting 4 or 5 or 6 out of 6 bets right. And THAT is how we calculate our Sure Bets to create consistent winnings.