If you do a little search on “Value Betting on soccer” you will find Soccer Widow in the first 5 search options. This is actually how we stumbled with this amazing site that looks into football betting from an angle using financial techniques that make it look more like an investment. At first the content on the site seemed hard to grasp but it really is what a bettor needs to take advantage of the market and not the other way around. Elena Schaelike is the creator of Soccer Widow who decided to submerge into sports betting to aid her Manchester United fan-husband who was constantly getting correct match predictions but at the end of the day wasn´t turning in any profit.
In the present the site receives 5,000 daily visits from around the world and judging by the comments it has garnered amazing value for the bettors community.
Elena Schaelike, the Soccer Widow
Elena Schaelike is a financial consultant from Germany with a deep understanding and passion for mathematics, but her profitable story with football betting begun in Uganda 2011. Two years after the German government had commissioned her and her husband to educate an African Government Association on finances. Here she came to a country were the Premier League was everywhere at every time. The Ugandan´s are serious Premier League fans with Arsenal having the most supporters after the Thierry Henry era in 2003 and Manchester United fans following a close behind.
Elena wasn´t and still isn´t much into football, but her English husband is a huge Manchester United supporter. Uganda was football paradise for him with cable TV showcasing premier league matches throughout the afternoons. Football soon became a stressful event in the marriage so to save it Elena decided to join her husband´s passion from her own angle, mathematics.
You see, her husband was very good at predicting matches, strangely he wasn´t producing the expected return of investment. He would get many predictions correct but the few that he didn´t ate up his winnings. He wasn´t being smart on the risks he was taking in relation to his possible rewards. Elena explains it this way:
“Take a coin and bet on it landing heads. You got 50% chances of winning and so do I. But what if I told you that every time you win you gain $0.20 cents and when you lose I gain $0.80 cents? Who will lose in the long run?”
This is what is known as “Value Betting”, a term used by Elena to define if a bet is valuable enough in terms or reward vs the risk taken.
Soccer Widow was born in 2011. Elena begun to crunch her data and make bets of her own, starting off with 50 euros in 6 months she managed to grow her account by 500%. She began to teach value betting on the site and soon Betfair got interested in her skills and hired her as tipster for their German sister website, something that got her to become a Bundesliga expert. But soon after the German government heavily restricted online betting turning the Soccer Widow´s interest back into the Premier League.
Currently Soccer Widow is looking to consolidate a team to perform data mining on all leagues.
Who can benefit from Soccer Widow
Soccer Widow is aimed at those who have already some experience in the world of sports betting, but like Mr. Widow (Rob) they have a hard time leaving emotions aside. The content here might be a little hard to grasp for the entirely new to the world of betting while those with an initial experience and a developed strategy will get the most out of it. Many bettors aren´t that good at math and fail to understand how it can improve their decision making. Elena is here to help those who need a little push in the right direction.
Soccer Widow is recommended for those expecting to become professional bettors.
Making money on sports betting like an investor
According to the philosophy of Soccer Widow there are only 3 ways to make consistent money with sports betting:
- Value Betting
Value Betting is finding the highest probabilities to win a bet that at the same time pays more than even money. Usually betting on the favorite will not be at even money as the crowd will fill that pool, so smart bettors need to look for other exotic bets or asses when to bet for the underdog in order to find the most valuable odds in the market.
Arbitrage is a win/win game in sports betting, a whole in the system that sneaky bettors can take advantage off. You see sport books all calculate odds their own way, so sometimes you might find bookmaker A offers a price of 2.06 on an Over 2.5 goals while bookmaker B is offering 2.08 on a Under 2.5 goals. If you take both bets betting an equivalent amount on each you will end in the money no matter the result. The guaranteed return is normally around 3% to 5% max. Finding Arbitrage opportunities is rare but they do happen and specific software exists to tip you off how to take advantage of them.
Cross Market Arbitrage is more complex in the sense that 2 sport books might offer different betting types that cancel each other out leaving a small gain. Some examples are:
Asian Handicap +/-0
The following is some of the knowledge Soccer Widow specializes on.
Lay Betting vs Back Betting
Bayern Munich is almost always the favorite to win in the Bundesliga, even on away matches were they don´t win 50% of the time. The odds should be at least at even money 2.0, but sport books are usually underprice with odds more or so 1.6 or 1.4 due to market demand. This is what Soccer Widow calls a “point of inflection” and an opportunity arises to bet against the favorite from winning. Lay betting is the opposite of back betting, it is a bet for your candidate to lose and odds can be more rewarding.
Betting Exchanges, the new way to bet
Betting Exchanges have a large similarity to the stock market, here someone purchases a lay bet while another trader will purchase a back bet, just like buying and selling stocks. The price here is the odds than constantly change during a match. Traders will then look for opportunities to buy at low odds and sell high.
“Football Betting Odds Calculation Course” book
This is a beginners book that explains how to calculate odds using probabilities and lots of examples to guide the inexperienced through different lessons. Learn how sports odds determine odds, what is value betting and calculating ROI (Return of Investment). At the very end readers will find instructions on how to build their own betting system.
The Value Calculator
The Value Calculator is another product available for purchase from Soccer Widow, it is a spreadsheet with formulas helps the experience bettor to crunch down data and quickly determine the real odds of an event based on given parameters and compare them to market odds, hence finding opportunities in the market.