On this article we want to share our professional insight on what a Serie A football betting strategy should look like. Italian football betting is second in popularity to the Premier League and the Spanish La Liga.
While there are super powerful clubs like Roma, Milan and Inter, in general the league tends to be more equal in strength compared to the Spanish League for example.
Serie A Football Betting Strategy – Most Common Scoreline
1-0 and 2-1 are the two most popular Full-Time scorelines in the Serie A.
More than 30% of the games each season produce either of the two results however, it should be noted that we’ve included home & away wins as one when mentioning 1-0 & 2-1.
If home & away wins are taken as two, then 1-1 edges 1-0 home win as the most popular FT scoreline. 0-0 scoreline makes up for nearly 10% of the games each season, the scoreline is the most frequent HT scoreline in the Serie A.
Moreover, the probability of the FT scoreline remaining the same as the HT scoreline is more for 0-0 than any other score. A final point to be noted is that, if a team heads into HT break with a 2 or more goal lead, they will go onto win in at least 95% of the those games. Placing one or two Correct score bets can be risky in the long run but if you couple it with the Accumulator Betting strategy, you have a winning combination on your hands.
*Must Read: Latin America football strategy betting tips.
Italian Football Betting Tip #1 – Goals Per Game Average
No.of Games: 1900 (2011/12 to 2015/16)
Goals Scored: 5010
Goals/game Average: 2.64
Looking at the Serie A statistics from Italian football over the last 5 seasons, 2.64 is the average goals/game average of the league.
Despite being more than 2.64 on average, the number of games having 3 or more goals is less 50% on most seasons.
While the teams who finish top 6 on most seasons are the major contributors to the goals, it is interesting to see that the games involving mid-table clubs produce the last amount high scoring games.
Strategy Betting Tip #2 – Cards Per Game Average
No.of Games: 1900 (2011/12 to 2015/16)
The card count isn’t the highest among the top 4 leagues, it is still considerably more than the English Premier League. It is not surprising to see that the clubs who finish in the bottom third of the table are the worst offenders.
The newly promoted almost always ranks among the worst offenders each season. Some of the noteworthy offenders in the league include Atalanta, Chievo, Bologna & Cagliari.
Strategy Betting Tip #3 – Home Advantage
Almost all the clubs in the Serie A have a considerably better home record when compared to their away record. As per the last 5 season, home teams have won slightly more than 45% of the games each season. While, 28% of the games are won by the away team and 27% of the lot end in draws.
The clubs do score more at home than away, with around 60% of the goals each season being scored at home. Unsurprisingly, clubs who finish the season at the bottom of the table have the poorest away record.
The Mid table clubs have their fair share of troubles at home but their overall home & away record cancels each other out.
Apart from the odd slip-up at home against a weaker opponent the top 6 are extremely dominant at home.
Strategy Betting Tip #4 – Capocannoniere Winner
Serie A’s top scorer each season is awarded the Capocannoniere. The word translates to “top goal scorer”.
Looking at the winners of the award since 2000, only 2 of the 16 winners till date have come from the team who’ve won the title. In fact the last time that a player of from the Scudetto winning club won the accolade was in 2008/09, when Ibrahimovic won it while playing for Inter.
The 2001/02 season the award being shared by two players one of whom came from the eventual champions.
Despite the eventual capocannoniere winner rarely coming from the Champions, it has been seen that 10 of the 16 winners till date have come from a club in the top 3.
Just as the case with the capocannoniere, the eventual assists’ leader has also rarely come from the Scudetto winners. In the last five seasons, only Paul Pogba in 2015/16 came on top of the assists charts while playing with the eventual champions. Pogba shared the honor with Roma’s Pjanic.
More Italian Football Betting Links
*Serie A Betting Tips, all you need to know to enhance your strategy