The Premier League is hands down the most watched football league in the world and probably were the biggest money is rolled, and not just on transfers or footballer wages but Premier League betting as well.
Some would claim the UK and the Premier League the mecca of sports betting. It almost seems modern football history began here and it is in this market were most tipsters and punters like to spend their time.
For a fact, all of the tipsters that we follow on this site seem to be from places inside of the UK, not only for their slang on social media were they live and dine, but the second tire leagues they follow in Wales, Scotland and second divisions from the Premier League… even the college leagues.
Let’s face it, online UK Premier League betting seems to have more followers than Sunday church. English folk love betting, and you will learn how to do it like a pro.
Betting Tips Premier League
Betting on the Premier League is quite easy, if this is your first time ever the first thing is opening a sportsbook´s account. If you are not from the USA then we suggest starting with Bet365, the #1 market leader in sports betting and most reliable of all betting sites. Later you can diverse your investment and open accounts with several long lived sportsbooks like Coral or Betfair to hunt better odds.
Once you get your account up and ready and you have learned to place your first bet and what the different bet types are, it’s time to define a betting strategy.
Football Betting Strategy
A betting strategy for the Premier League should be no different than any other league, but there are some key aspects to keep in mind.
Most common Score
The most common score in the Premier League is 2 – 1 for home games.
The English Premier League is an offensive lover, speedy football of quick passes. It is not a slow control ball freak league, the obsession with most clubs seems to be “score, and score fast”. Players move quite easily from the first half of the field and most of the gameplay takes part just outside the goal courts.
The English Premier also has, along with the other top leagues in the world, the highest average of goal attempts. The mood of the fans and the pressure to score keeps the players with high revolutions.
It has always been said that the Premier League is the toughest league of all for the quality in the players and amount of highly competitive clubs.
0 – 0 might still be one of the most common score lines in the world of football, but not in the Premier League.
4 Best Premier League Teams
One can make a clear distinction between the Premier and La Liga, even the Bundesliga. While in Spain Real Madrid and Barcelona play a tournament of their own against clubs that can never rival them for the main trophy, in the Premier League 4 teams are in similar competitive conditions to dispute the title each year.
Ok… it is still a small cartel of clubs who play with the rest of the clubs, but the league remains competitive in almost all aspects. Since the Premier League was established in 1992 only 5 teams have won it, 4 of them are the above mentioned with a surprising longshot of Blackburn Rovers winning it once. But from all 23 titles that have been played so far Manchester United has won 60% of them. The title standings are as follows by the middle of the 2015/2016 season:
Manchester United – 13
Arsenal – 3
Chelsea – 4
Manchester City – 2
Blackburn Rovers – 1
Premier League Outright Winner
Watching the latest stats and considering you know nothing of the Premier League one might think Manchester United to be the best team in the UK. Well, maybe once not long ago and the club is clinching to that history trying to not lose it completely. But the truth is the first 4 clubs are presently very equal in authority inside the league.
For the present season 2015/2016 Arsenal and Manchester City seem to be the dominant clubs with Manchester United close behind and a surprising longshot, Leicester City. But in the last season 2014/2015 Chelsea was king supreme and presently stands in the lower table.
So never take anything for granted in the Premier League, leadership well battled by 4 clubs with strong long shots that can defeat at any given time. We do suggest to focus your bets on these 4 when they are in their best.
- Premier League outright winner prediction: Arsenal 7/4 Odds.
Manchester United Betting
Manchester United betting has become a paradox lately. Until 2013 it won everything in its path since the late 90’s till then. 13 Premier League titles, one after the other and if not runner-ups in 5 other occasions. But after the leaving of the legendary manager Alex Ferguson United has never been the same.
Alex Ferguson seemed to be the key of success, that and the deep wallet the club has. According to Forbes Manchester United is valued in $3 Billion dollars with a yearly revenue of $700 million , enough to buy any player they desire in the world as long as Barcelona or Real Madrid do not get in their way, and the #3 most “rich” football club in the world after the two Spanish kings.
But Manchester has a tendency to offer astronomical figures to not just one but several super players trying to conform the superstar team that can reclaim their glory.
Recently acquisitions have proven a failure though in the likes of Di Maria and Falcao. The problem seems to be the hard pace of the Premier League, although these players used to perform greatly on other leagues.
Manchester United Betting Tips
United can be a pain sometimes, watch it closely to bet only on behalf when it is performing greatly and small rivals. The club gets excited when reaching the top.
Betting against United is not a bad idea either. Most of the best will go for United no matter their horrible present, so longshots should pay handsomely. Just know when to do it, read some news about united and their rivals to determine which is in better conditions.
Over 0.5 Goals and 1.5 Match Goals is not a bad idea either. Any of United games seems to include a lot of goals both made and taken.
What about Liverpool vs United? The classic derby from the UK, United has crushed Liverpool time and time again since its peak in greatness, the player skill on both teams are in different levels. Bet on United to win at home and United draw or win on Liverpool´s grounds.
__ to Score First, he is one hell of a player for United and has maintained his striking prowess throughout time despite being in the later part of his career. Not only does he score a lot but has the tendency to do first.
Arsenal suffered a fate very much like Manchester United with the main difference that United had been a supreme club for almost all of its history while Arsenal became the best club in the world for a few years only. But those happy years were enough to make them one of the clubs with most followers in the world after Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Juventus.
Remember the days of Thierry Henry and company? Arsenal was full of all the stars of the moment, World Cup winners and footy skills that was love at pure sight for fans of faraway places like Bacha Lagvilava of Georgia.
Although the club remains one of the strongest in the Premier League and the world, it tends to escort the big brothers more often than beat them. In the 2014/2015 season it struggled to keep up with Manchester City and Chelsea, and in the 2015/2016 season it shares the top with City by the moment of this writing.
Still, betting on Arsenal remains our favorite to win the Premier League for season 2015/2016.
Arsenal Betting Tips
Similar to Manchester United this is an irregular team in their performance behavior, although they do tend win and lose in batches, win the first few games then lose and draw a couple games. Up and down gaining the top then conceding points. Our analysis is that key players are too crucial for the club’s performance, especially the goalie and the strikers.
For some reason Arsenal’s goal seems too vulnerable. It tends to have incredible world class goalkeepers that do their job well and seal the goal, but when they get injured or the defense begins to break it is not strange for Arsenal to lose for Over 3 goals every few games. It has happened in the Champions League and the Premier almost every season.
Draw or Win against the big clubs only when they have been on a good streak and their rivals are shaky. But keep an eye on the goalie and strikers and their health; are they injured? Do they come from a too recent match with their national teams? Do not expect for Arsenal to perform at their best when its players are too exhausted, and it does have many who play on their national squads.
Following that last tip, bet against Arsenal when their players come from national games, their focus is still elsewhere, they are tired and most probably full of hurts or minor injuries as national games for World Cup Playoffs are rough. Arsenal tends to concede a lot of goals during these periods, but watch closely if their rival has what it takes.
Chelsea does not have that great international history both Manchester United and Arsenal acquired (Liverpool is in this list back in the 70´s – 80´s). They have their local titles and a few internationals but never has the club been the best in the world.
Chelsea betting is a bit unstable in the present, during season 2014/2015 they seemed unstoppable, but then again Manchester City was the king a couple months back, the Premier seems to cycle who is the best between the favorite 4.
Chelsea is another team that spends a good buck on strikers and skillful players. Their game is fast and strong but with defense deficiencies. But the Chelsea from season 2014/2015 ended in perfect condition and a favorite contender for next year’s Champions, the Chelsea that began the 2015/2016 is but a mere shadow of the squad that acquired the Premier League title and by the moment of this writing they stand on the lower table. A very volatile team, it fails to maintain its status in a greater magnitude than United or Arsenal.
Chelsea Betting Tips
Chelsea seems to suffer from anxiety, Mourinho their present coach seems to, at least. They have hired a lot of players that never really played and were costly, in the likes of the Colombian striker’s Cuadrado, who had amazing skills but never really given the chance to adapt and was lay-off back to Italy, and Falco who came as a lend after failing in United, Falcao only scored once or twice and back to be a benchwarmer.
Why bring players to not use them? Bad decision making. Mourinho is loved and hated, he is a great manager with the game-tactic´s knowledge to turn Chelsea into a winner, but makes too rash decisions to conform his squad and that rashness is also reflected on the field, on the way takes decisions or fails to make them.
Bet on Chelsea to win against small rivals but only on their good days.
Considering Chelsea is mid table you can take longshots on clubs that are higher in the table with a more regular game like Leicester to beat it, bet on longshots to win or draw against Chelsea when it is in between Champion´s games and in crisis.
On the top of its conditions go for the Over 1.5 goal for Chelsea games. With their player´s condition it is unlikely the games end 0 – 0.
Manchester City Betting
Manchester City could once be considered the weakest of the 4 top clubs in the UK, but in recent seasons they have maintained their high table positions and won the most recent Premier Leagues. They won the 2013/2014 season, came in runner-ups in 2014/2015 leading the season on the first half until their Champions League participation stalled them enough for Chelsea to hunt them down. In the present 2015/2016 they share the top with Arsenal and seem to sneak it away as Arsenal flickers.
The point is City, in contrast to the other Premier League top teams, is rising on their status and national prowess, both on high skilled players on their squad like Aguero in the present and as a whole. On the international arena they are still not making the cut, a general problem with English clubs in the past years.
In short, Manchester City can be considered one of the most regular teams in the Premier League right now and expecting it to win more often than not is not a bad idea.
Manchester City Betting Tips
Being one of the most regular squads in the Premier bet on Manchester City to win against middle table and lower rivals. We can even suggest to include City on Doubles and Accumulators for their consistency.
Over 0.5 Goals or 1.5 on all of their matches. One does not keep the top without goals.
Win or Draw against top rivals when City is on top.
Top Scorer to score first, only take this bet when main striker is on a roll. For the 2014/2015 season it was Sergio Aguero, and before Chelsea took the top Aguero scored in almost every match.
Liverpool isn’t on the Premier League’s top 4 teams, but for some it should be, despite that it hasn’t won one title on this tournament since its creation in the early 90´s.
Liverpool was one of the greatest teams in the world in the 60’s and 70’s. Back then it was United that looked-up upon with envy and struggled in the derbies. Title after title the Phoenix squad grew nationally, both English tournaments and international trophies.
But something happened to Liverpool in their complex history and they lost their touch. After their Golden Age only one incredible Champions League title was won in an epic game later nicknamed as the “Miracle of Istanbul”. After that the maximum distinctions have been runner-ups and finalist positions on the local and international arena.
The reasons why are better understood through their history, in terms of quality of transactions Liverpool acquires a couple of quality players mostly from inside the league and cannot afford to spent tens of millions of pounds on world super stars like the other top clubs do.
Still, the squad tends to be more inclined to a high offensive structure with defensive issues. In terms of Liverpool betting irregularity have marked the last seasons and their best performance has been to escort the top teams on top but never really taking the top. Liverpool is a usual qualifier for the Europa League, if that is an exotic bet to take.
Liverpool Betting Tips
Over 2.5 Goals on the derby matches against Manchester United.
Over 1.5 Goals against top level clubs.
Over 0.5 Goals against low table clubs.
Liverpool to Win against lower table clubs.
Lay Liverpool against top 4 clubs.
Inplay Over # of Corners, being big on offense many corner-kicks are normal.
Other Premier League Clubs Betting
These are the main clubs to bet for in the Premier League. Others that can be count on to win more often than not are Stoke City, Leicester and Newcastle. Rarely are these other clubs seen on the top 4 places of the table and it is a miracle to see them on the top for a significant period. Still they are not completely overpowered by the top clubs like in other leagues, the Premier is highly competitive and long shots here do draw and win games against top clubs with some constancy.
More Premier League Betting Tips
Bet on Longshots to Win or Draw when their conditions are great and their top level rival is distracted on international competitions and is likely to play with the reserve squad or tired key players.
Under 1.5 Team Goals against the top 4 in the table. Goals from each side are normal in the Premier but the most solid teams of the moment do not concede more than 1 goal against mid-table down clubs.
Over 0.5 Goals in matches against top 4 clubs.
Forbes.com, Manchester United Valuation, 2015