betting-in-africa

Betting or Gambling as many prefer to call it has been legalized in almost all the African countries. The love for the game has inadvertently helped the betting industry in tightening it’s grip over the continent. Smartphone era has also played it’s part as anyone can easily get on with betting with a basic internet connection.

While some consider betting as hobby, which is perfectly fine, one should have self-restraint so that he doesn’t end up with an empty pocket. The one piece of advice we would like to give out to every new bettor reading this is to keep a betting limit. Never let yourself bet over this amount even if you think it will fetch you all the money you’ve lost till now.

This is the third of our “How to bet on Africa” series & here we will be focusing on Germany’s Premier Football division, the Bundesliga. We will be taking a look at all possible stats & facts related to the Bundesliga and hopefully come up with some sure fire betting tips.

Bundesliga Betting

bundesliga-logo

Founded in the year 1963, the Bundesliga one of the followed professional football leagues in the globe. Almost of all the games, whether the clubs involved are contesting for the title or are in the relegation race is played in front of packed audience. While the Bundesliga doesn’t match up to the competitiveness of the Premier League, the quality of football is arguably better than their English counterparts.

Bayern Munich by a great margin has dominated in the Bundesliga since the start of the competition. In the 53 seasons till date, Bayern has won a total of 25 titles while Borussia Monchengladbach & Borussia Dortmund have 5 titles to their name. The other clubs to have the title during this period include: –

  • Werder Bremen – 4 (last of which came in the 2003/04 season)
  • Hamburger – 3 (1982/83)
  • Stuttgart – 3 (2006/07)
  • FC Koln – 2 (1977/78) – 1st ever Bundesliga Champions – 1963/64
  • FC Kaiserslautern – 2 (1997/98)
  • TSV 1860 Munich – 1 (1965/66)
  • Eintracht Braunschweig – 1 (1966/67)
  • FC Nurnberg – 1 (1967/68)
  • VFL Wolfsburg – 1 (2008/09)

European Success

German clubs have had a reasonable amount of success in European competitions. Bayern Munich are the stand out performer among the lot having won 5 Champions League titles till date. The only other German clubs to have won the competition are Hamburger SV & Borussia Dortmund, one a piece. Bayern have been only consistent threat to the Spanish duo of Real Madrid & Barcelona since the turn of the century.

The record of German clubs in Europe’s second tier competition, the Europa League stands at – 6 wins & 8 runners-up finishes. Monchengladbach are the most successful club in the German ranks with 2 wins while Bayern, Frankfurt, Leverkusen & Schalke have one title a piece.

Miscellaneous

Most of the clubs have quality youth academies and there is no shortage of talent in the league. Of all the clubs, Borussia Dortmund are arguably the most supported club in the league especially outside the country. The league has the lowest ticket prices among the top 5 European Leagues. Bundesliga is currently ranked 2nd ahead of the Premier League in the UEFA League Co-Efficient Ranking[1]. The part of the Bundesliga in helping Germany be a consistent performer in the International scene is immense.

Bundesliga in Africa

English football ever since it’s transformation into the Premier League has been by some distant the most popular league across the globe. From 1976 to 1988 there was a popular TV program that used to air once a week in Africa looking back the Bundesliga action from the previous week. During that period German football was the undisputed leader in Africa, but over the years Premier League has over taken them mainly due to the way the league is marketed towards audience.

Bundesliga is the second richest league in the globe behind the Premier League. Star Time Sports are the main Bundesliga broadcasters of the Bundesliga in the Sub Saharan African Countries including Nigeria & South Africa. beIN Sports are the main Bundesliga broadcasters in North Africa. The league has secured secured a 4.6€ billion TV deal for 4 seasons starting from 2017/18.[2]

2016/17 season has a total of 13 Africans competing in it for various teams, some of them are: –

  • Aubameyang (Gabon) – Borussia Dortmund
  • Salomon Kalou (Ivory Coast) – Hertha Berlin
  • Nabil Bentaleb (Algeria) – Schalke 04
  • Eric Maxim Choupo Moting (Cameroon) – Schalke 04
  • Lamine Sane (Senegal) – Werder Bremen

Bundesliga Basics

  • The top 18 team in German football compete in the Bundesliga
  • Each club plays a total of 34 games each season
  • The club who finishes the season with the most number of points wins the Bundesliga title
  • If two teams are tied on points then the overall goal difference during the season is used to separate the teams
  • If the teams are tied on GD as well, then the total number of goals scored in the season is used as a tie-breaker
  • The Top 4 teams in the league earn qualification to the Champions League, with the 4th placed team entering the tournament at the play-off stage
  • 5th & 6th placed teams along with the Domestic Cup (DFB-Pokal) winner qualify for the Europa League
  • If the Domestic Cup Winner has already earned qualification to Europe via their league placing, then the 7th placed team in the league will qualify for the Europa League.
  • The Bottom two teams at the end of the season are relegated to the 2nd tier while the 16th placed team enters a Relegation Play-off with the 3rd placed team in 2. Bundesliga.

STATS & FACTS FOR BUNDESLIGA BETTING

statistics-bundesliga

As already mentioned the Bundesliga has been dominated by Bayern Munich ever since the competitions’ inception, there have been stints during which Dortmund, Monchengladbach & Werder Bremen have challenged the Bavarians, but in the end it has always been about whether Bayern Munich can or cannot. We’ll be looking at the past 4 Bundesliga seasons, each of which Bayern Munich has won.

2012/13 Season

The 2012/13 season marked the 50th anniversary of the Bundesliga. Bayern Munich won their 22nd Bundesliga title by racking up 91 points in 34 games. The Bavarians finished 25 points ahead of 2nd Dortmund who could manage only 66. Bayern lost only a single game the entire season, a 2-1 defeat against Bayern Leverkusen at home. Bavarians were so dominant throughout the season that they set as many as new 30 records. In addition to league title Bayern also won the domestic cup & the champions league, beating Dortmund 2-1 in the final. Bayern Leverkusen’s Stefan KieBling finished season as the top scorer with 25 goals.

Total No.of Games: – 306 (34 Matchdays X 9 Matches per Week)

Sl. No Particular Result Percentage
1 Home Wins 130 42.48%
2 Away Wins 98 32.02%
3 Draws 78 25.50%

Total No. Of Goals Scored : 898

Goals/Game Average : 2.93

1 First Half Goals 391 43.54%
2 Second Half Goals 507 56.46%
3 Home Goals 487 54.23%
4 Away Goals 411 45.77%

Over/Under Scoreline

Sl.No Over/Under(Goals) Percentage
1 Over 0.5 93.5%
2 Under 0.5 6.5%
3 Over 1.5 81.7%
4 Under 1.5 18.3%
5 Over 2.5 55.6%
6 Under 2.5 44.4%

Discipline

Sl.No Particular Total Number Cards/Game
1 Yellow Cards 1117 3.65
2 Red Cards 64 0.29

2013/14 Season

The 2013/14 season once again saw Bayern Munich stamping it’s authority on the league. Bavarians won their 23rd Bundesliga by accumulating a total of 90 points, 20 more than Dortmund once again in 2nd place. Schalke with 64 points & Leverkusen with 61 points rounded off the top 4. Bayern secured the title on Gameweek 27 which was a new record. Dortmund duo Lewandowski & Reus finished on top of the scoring & assists charts respectively.

Total No.of Games: – 306 (34 Matchdays X 9 Matches per Week)

Sl.No Particular Result Percentage
1 Home Wins 145 47.4%
2 Away Wins 97 31.7%
3 Draws 64 20.9%

Total No. Of Goals Scored : 967

Goals/Game Average : 3.16

1 First Half Goals 437 45.20%
2 Second Half Goals 530 54.80%
3 Home Goals 535 55.33%
4 Away Goals 432 44.67%

Over/Under Scoreline

Sl.No Over/Under(Goals) Percentage
1 Over 0.5 95.8%
2 Under 0.5 4.2%
3 Over 1.5 84.6%
4 Under 1.5 15.4%
5 Over 2.5 61.1%
6 Under 2.5 38.9%

Discipline

Sl.No Particular Total Number Cards/Game
1 Yellow Cards 1077 3.52
2 Red Cards 58 0.19

2014/15 Season

Bayern Munich for the 3rd consecutive season won the Bundesliga with a total points tally of 79. Wolfsburg finished as the runners-up with 69 points while Monchengladbach & Leverkusen, with 66 and 61 points respectively rounded off the top four. Borussia Dortmund who had finished among the top 2 in each of the last 4 season, had a horrendous first half to the season and found themselves at the bottom of the table at the end of Gameweek 19. The club somehow fought back from their and ended the season with a respectable 7th place finish.

Frankfurt’s Alexander Meier finished as top scorer for the season with 19 goals, while Wolfsburg’s Kevin de Bruyne finished on top of the assists chart with 21 scalps.

Total No.of Games: – 306 (34 Matchdays X 9 Matches per Week)

Sl.No Particular Result Percentage
1 Home Wins 145 47.4%
2 Away Wins 79 25.8%
3 Draws 82 26.8%
Total No. Of Goals Scored : 843
Goals/Game Average : 2.75
1 First Half Goals 371 44.01%
2 Second Half Goals 472 55.99%
3 Home Goals 486 57.65%
4 Away Goals 357 42.35%

Over/Under Scoreline

Sl.No Over/Under(Goals) Percentage
1 Over 0.5 90.8%
2 Under 0.5 9.2%
3 Over 1.5 74.8%
4 Under 1.5 25.2%
5 Over 2.5 51.3%
6 Under 2.5 48.7%

Discipline

Sl.No Particular Total Number Cards/Game
1 Yellow Cards 1105 3.61
2 Red Cards 53 0.17

2015/16 Season

53rd season in Bundesliga history. Bayern Munich won their 4th consecutive Bundesliga and the 25th in their history. The Bavarians ended the season with a tally of 88 points while Dortmund once again finished 2nd with 78 points. Leverkusen with 60 & Monchengladbach with 55 points rounded of their top 4. It was the first time in Bundesliga history that a team won the title in 4 consecutive seasons. Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski finished the season as the top scorer with 30 goals while, while Dortmund’s Mkhitaryan finished on top of the assists chart with 15.

Total No.of Games: – 306 (34 Matchdays X 9 Matches per Week)

Sl.No Particular Result Percentage
1 Home Wins 135 44.12%
2 Away Wins 100 32.68%
3 Draws 71 23.20%
Total No. Of Goals Scored : 866
Goals/Game Average : 2.83
1 First Half Goals 381 44.00%
2 Second Half Goals 485 56.00%
3 Home Goals 479 55.31%
4 Away Goals 387 44.69%

Over/Under Scoreline

Sl.No Over/Under(Goals) Percentage
1 Over 0.5 92.2%
2 Under 0.5 7.8%
3 Over 1.5 81.9%
4 Under 1.5 18.1%
5 Over 2.5 58.3%
6 Under 2.5 41.7%

Discipline

Sl.No Particular Total Number Cards/Game
1 Yellow Cards 1166 3.81
2 Red Cards 40 0.13

Bundesliga Analysis

The Most Common Scoreline

Getty Images - Theo Karanikos

Getty Images – Theo Karanikos

Sl.No Scoreline Percentage
2014/15 2015/16
1 0-0 9% 8%
2 1-0 16% 15%
3 1-1 9% 10%
4 2-0 15% 11%
5 2-1 14% 15%
6 3-0 5% 7%
7 2-2 7% 4%
8 Others 25% 30%

Similar to the other top European Leagues, 1-0 & 2-1 are two of the most popular scorelines in the Bundesliga. More than 25% of the games produce either of the two results on a consistent basis. It should be noted that more than 30% of the games do produce 4 or more goals, which is the highest among any of the top European Leagues.

The 1-0 scoreline we are referring to includes both home and away wins (1-0 & 0-1), same is the case with 2-1 & 1-2 scorelines. If these scorelines are considered separately then 1-1 becomes the most popular scoreline over the last decade with 1-0 home win and 2-1 home win ranking just below it.

0-0 is the most common half-time scoreline in the league while 1-0 & 0-1 round off the top 3. The half time scoreline varies with the full time scoreline in more than 75% of the games. The best way to make money via Correct Score betting is by using the Accumulator Betting Strategy.

Goals Per Game Average

No.of Games: 1224 (2012/13 to 2015/16)

Goals Scored: 3574

Goals/game Average: 2.92

The Goals/Game Average in the Bundesliga is highest when compared with that of the EPL & the La Liga. Even though there has been an occasional spike in the Goals/Game Average every odd season, the number has remained fairly constant around 2.8. Even though 1-0, 1-1 are the among the most popular, the Bundesliga is notorious for high scoring games of which 3-0, 3-1, 2-2 & 4-0 are some of the most popular high scoring scorelines. Nearly 60% of the games produce more than 3 goals per game.

Cards Per Game Average

No.of Games: 1224 (2012/13 to 2015/16)

Sl.No Particular Total Number Cards/Game
1 Yellow Cards 4465 3.65
2 Red Cards 215 0.18

As listed above a Bundesliga on an average produces around 3-4 yellow cards per game. The number is higher than the Premier League but considerably lesser than the La Liga count. Looking back at the statistics of the last four seasons it is evident that the clubs who find themselves in bottom half of the table are the worst offenders. Frankfurt, Werder Bremen & Hannover are the most persistent offenders along with the newly promoted clubs.

Home Advantage

African football is notorious for clubs who make their home ground a fortress. It also similar in the Bundesliga with nearly 45-50% of the games each season ending in a home win. The number of away wins vary between 25-30 while the number of draws also varies between 25-30%.Almost 60% of the goals each season are scored by the home teams, once again magnifying the importance of playing at home.

The Top 6, especially the Champions League qualifiers are consistently the best performers at home which isn’t a surprise. Mid-table clubs do better at home than away & their overall league standing coincides with their home form.  Looking at the clubs who finish bottom of the log each season, their away form is extremely poor when compared with mid-table clubs.

Bundesliga Golden Boot

Two time

Two time Bundesliga Top Scorer – Robert Lewandowski (Pic Cou: Goal.com)

The award given to the top scorer in the Bundesliga was formerly known as the Kicker Torjagerkanone. Robert Lewandowski won the award last season slotting in 30 goals for the league champions Bayern Munich. It was the first time since the 1976/77 season when Dieter Muller scored 34 for FC Koln, that a player had scored 30 or more goals in the league. An interesting of statistic we came across will going through the former winners is that, the eventual winner doesn’t necessarily come from the league champions.

It is widely acknowledged how dominant Bayern have been since the turn of the century, winning the title in 10 of the last 16 seasons, it should be noted though as to how scarily a player from the winning team has won the award. Since 2000, only 6 times have the Golden Boot winner come from the title winning club. On two of the 6 occassions, the award was shared with a player from another team. The assist leader in each of the last 4 season have come from Dortmund with the club finishing 2nd in 3 of the 4 seasons.

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Bundesliga Betting Tips

Total Cards/Game – Over 3.5

In accordance with the rise of online bettors, the competition among the various online sportsbooks have also intensified. The number of betting markets for most of the games in the Top 5 European Leagues are huge. Think of any bet you want to make and it can be placed with bookie if not another. Over 3.5 Yellow Cards per games seems a good bet for almost every Bundesliga game and if it’s a clash between equals then you can be sure the card count will be high.

  • 6 Point Games – Games between who equally strong teams
  • Games where teams in bottom quarter are involved
  • Newly Promoted clubs are notorious offenders

Over/Under Goals – Over 2.5

This is without doubt one of our favorite bets especially when it comes to the European Leagues. Over 2.5 especially is the Bundesliga is a sure shot bet as long as you know about the league. Looking back at the last four seasons it is evident that the games involving teams who finished mid table, i.e; either 8th, 9th 0r 10th averaged around 3.5 goals per game.

  • 2012/13 – Hannover 96 – 9th Place – Goals/Game Average – 3.5
  • 2013/14 – 1899 Hoffenheim – 9th Place – Goals/Game Average – 4.18
  • 2014/15 – Eintracht Frankfurt – 9th Place – Goals/Game Average – 3.47
  • 2014/15 – Werder Bremen – 10th Place – Goals/Game Average – 3.38

The 2015/16 season was an anomaly with some of the clubs who were expected to be relegated, punched above their weight and secured mid-tables finishes. This resulted in some of the Bundesliga regulars such as Hannover & Stuttgart being relegated while Frankfurt hung on via a 16th place finish.

Another point to keep in mind is that the top 6 clubs i.e the quality of the likes of Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, Schalke & Monchengladbach are completely different from the rest of the league. While these clubs  can struggle every odd season the gap between them and the rest of the league is too big to be ignored.

  • Mid table clubs are susceptible to over 3.5 goals/games
  • Games involving the Top 4 will have more than 3 goals on a consistent basis when they come up against a lower half team
  • Dortmund games are fun to watch and a good bet to see some goals judging by the last few seasons
  • Games involving Relegation contenders against mid-table clubs are boring but their matches are good bet for Under 2.5.
  • Newly Promoted clubs are also boring so Under 2.5 is the best bet.

Data from Soccerstats.com [3]

Handicap Betting

Handicap Betting is particularly useful in the Bundesliga were heavyweights such as Bayern Munich & Dortmund among others call rough shots over the rest of the league. The number of matches which Bayern Munich have lost over the last 4 seasons has been just 10, of which 5 of them came in 2014/15 season. With Handicap Betting you can still make money by Betting against Bayern by giving the opponent a handicap.

Illustration

If you see Bayern winning a game against Koln for example by 3 goals, then give Koln and advantage of 3 goals prior to the game. If Bayern do manage to win the game 3-0, 4-1 etc then you will still win the bet because you have given Koln an advantage 3 thereby making you’re scoreline 3-3 or 4-1. Easy Right?

In Play Betting & Combination Bets

In Play Betting in detail can be read here. A crucial piece of information with regard to In-Play Betting in Bundesliga is that Home teams who lead at the half time, go on to win the game in atleast 75% of the games. The stats are favoring the away teams with the half-time lead as well, with 60% of the games ending a positive result for the away team. Almost 60% of the goals in the Bundesliga are scored in the 2nd half, so if you see a game which you thought would be a high scoring game but is score is still 0-0, have patience because the 2nd half will probably be a completely different story.

Combination bets are simply combining individual bets you think will definitely yield a positive result for you. If you think that a game between Bayern and Koln will end in a win for Bayern, and that the game will have more than 3 goals in it. Combine bets so that you will get better odds.

European Success

Bayern Celebrating their 2012 Champions League triumph by beating Dortmund in the final

Bayern Celebrating their 2012 Champions League triumph, beating Dortmund in the final

It’s pretty much a fact that Bayern will start almost every season as favorite for the Champions League, however apart from Bayern the other German clubs have struggled to make an impact in Europe, with Dortmund being the only exception to some extend. Bayern are almost a shoe-in to reach the semi’s each season after which they’re campaign are usually ended by one of the Spanish or English Giants, later of whom have been struggling themselves lately. The stats aren’t much better when it comes to the Europa League were none of the German clubs have won the competition in two decades, they only have just one runners-up finish in 2009 (Werder Bremen) to show for their effort.

We can see Dortmund providing a challenge every odd season, but as for now all the hopes for a German success in the Champions League lies on the shoulders of Bayern Munich.

Keep in Mind – Bundesliga Betting

Domination

When it comes to Domination and Bundesliga, it’s much clear what we are talking about. 25 Bundesliga titles over the last 53 seasons is an extra ordinary feat. It’s not that they are playing in a weak league, Bundesliga is arguably the 2nd strongest league in Europe after the Premier League.

What sets Bayern apart for the rest of their German counterparts, are their ability to hold on to their World Class talents. Much of their countries’ success in international competitions can be correlated with the success of Bayern Munich. Apart from a odd slip-up every once or twice in a season it’s hard to see any club challenge Bayern in the years to come, Maybe Dortmund, Schalke or one of the top 6 may win the odd one but it has to be questioned whether they can be so consistently dominant as Bayern have been over the last half – century.

Derby Games & Rivalries

Sl.No Derby Contestants
1  Bavarian Derby Bayern Munich vs FC Nurnberg
2  Revier Derby Borussia Dortmund vs FC Schalke 04
3  Rheinland Derby FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach
4  Nord Derby Hamburg vs Werder Bremen
Sl.No Rivalries Contestants
1  Der Klassiker Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
2  _ Bayern Munich vs Schalke

It is widely accepted as to how Derbies are some of the most fiercely contested games in any season across the any league. The goals count are high and so are the cards counts, the games in general are end to end stuff which keeps when even the most casual footballer fan on the edge of their seat.

Betting Tips on German Derbies

  • Bavarian Derby – 22 games dating back to September 2002, Bayern have won 15 while Nurnberg has won just one, the win was at home by a 3-0 scoreline in the 2006/07 season. Bayern on an average score 2-3 goals in these games so you might want think about betting against Bayern by giving Nurnberg an advantage of three goals.
  • Revier Derby – 29 games dating back to September 2002, Dortmund have won 8 while Schalke have won 12. Schalke have won just one of their last 5 games with Dortmund winning two. Games on an average produce 3 or more goals but to be safe it’s better to go for Over 2.5 Goals
  • Rheinland Derby – 18 games played from August 2003, Koln have won 4 while Gladbach have won 9. The games on an average  produce 2.4 goals but their last four games have produced just three goals in total. This game has had a clean sheet for either of the two sides in 11 of the 18 games, with all of their last 6 games ending in a clean sheet for either of the two sides.
  • Nord Derby – 32 games till date from August 2002, Werder Bremen have won 17 while Hamburger have won 10. Two clubs who’ve reached the top but are struggling in recent times. The games produces a result in 85% of the games and the last time the game ended in stalemate was in the 2009/10 season. The games are generally high scoring and Over 2.5 goals is the best bet.

Betting Tips on German Rivalries

  • Der Klassiker – 40 games from November 2002, The fixture is popularly known as the German Clasico, Bayern have won 20 while Dortmund have 13. All their cup games have yielded a result with Bayern holding a slight advantage of 7 wins against Dortmund’s 5 wins (includes DFL Pokal,  German Super cup & Champions League). The games on an average has produce more than 3 goals, so Over 2.5. Away wins aren’t that rare in this fixture. Overall stats stand at 52 wins in 113 games for Bayern while Dortmund have 28 wins to their name.
  • Bayern vs Schalke – 37 games from March 2002, Bayern have won 22 games while Schalke has won 8. Bayern have won 10 of their last 12 encounters and the other two games ended in draws. The games on an average produce 2.5 goals and should be a easy bet to land. Giving Bayern a handicap of 2 goals should be a good bet against a talented Schalke unit.

Bogey Teams

Sl.No Club Bogey Team Fact
1 Bayern Monchengladbach Bayern has won just 4 of their previous 11 meetings against Gladbach. The statistic isn’t all that bad, but for Bayern who’ve lost just 10 league games in the last 4 seasons, their struggles against Gladbach is intriguing.
2 Dortmund Hamburger SV Hamburger have had the better of Dortmund in the last  four seasons, winning 5 and losing two of their last 8 games.
3 Schalke VFB Stuttgart Stuttgart have won 5 and drawn 2 of their last 12 meetings against Schalke.
4 Monchengladbach FC Augsburg In their last 12 meeting, Augsburg and Gladbach have won 4 a piece.

Relegation Play-off

As already mentioned earlier in the article, the current format in the Bundesliga involves the 16th placed team at the end of season facing off against the 3rd placed team in the second tier in a relegation play-off. Since the new format was introduced in the 2008/09 season, Bundesliga clubs have won the two legged tie 6 times while second-tier clubs have won twice. It is also seen as to how one of the mid table clubs seems to fall into the relegation fodder after a perfectly fine season the year before, the examples being 1899 Hoffenheim finishing 16th in the 2012/13 season after a 11th place finish in the 2011/12 season, or FC Nuremberg’s relegation in the 2013/14 season after a 10th place finish in the 2012/13 season.

External Resources

[1] wikipedia.org, UEFA Co-efficient Ranking

[2] espn.in, Bundesliga looks to close the gap to the Premier League

[3] soccerstats.com, Data from the top 5 European leagues